Finland Reprices Its Migration Demand

Finland expects weaker foreign-student demand, moderate asylum volumes and a modest recovery in work-based residence permit applications in 2026–2027. The latest forecast from the Finnish Immigration Service shows that the country still needs foreign labour, but higher costs, tuition changes and a difficult labour market are making the student route less accessible.

Finland updates its immigration outlook to 2027

The Finnish Immigration Service, Migri, updated its application-volume forecasts for 2026 and 2027 in June 2026. The agency publishes the projections three times a year and prepares them through a foresight network involving Migri experts and external stakeholders. The current forecast covers four main categories: temporary protection, first asylum applications, first residence permit applications for studies and first residence permit applications based on employment. The page was last updated on June 29, 2026.

The forecast is relevant beyond migration statistics. It shows how Finland is trying to balance tighter migration policy, industrial labour needs, population ageing and competition for international students. For companies, the key signal is that work-based migration may rise again. For universities, the message is that foreign-student demand is no longer expanding at the earlier pace.

Temporary protection for Ukrainians remains significant

In January–May 2026, Finland received 3,215 applications for temporary protection, 3% fewer than in the same period last year. Migri expects applications to increase in the summer as Ukrainian seasonal workers arrive. For both 2026 and 2027, the agency forecasts 8,000–10,000 applicants per year. Temporary protection has been extended until March 2027.

Temporary protection is a special mechanism for people fleeing a country in large numbers because of war or an emergency. It grants residence rights and access to basic services without the standard individual asylum procedure. For Finland, this remains a separate migration channel, driven by the situation in Ukraine, pressure on neighbouring host countries and changes in protection conditions across the main receiving states.

Asylum applications are expected to stay moderate

Finland received 717 first asylum applications in January–May 2026, down 7% year-on-year. Migri forecasts 1,500–2,500 first asylum applications annually in 2026 and 2027. The agency stresses that the forecast does not include instrumentalised migration — artificially organised movements of people that can be used to pressure a state border.

The wider European context also points to cooling asylum pressure. The European Union Agency for Asylum reported that EU+ countries — EU member states, Norway and Switzerland — received just under 54,000 applications for international protection in April 2026, the lowest monthly level since July 2021 and more than one-fifth below the 2025 average.

For Finland, this points to relatively low pressure on the reception system under a baseline scenario. But the forecast remains exposed to external shocks: sudden changes in countries of origin and transit, conflicts or route disruptions can quickly affect applicant numbers.

Finnish universities face a student-application drop

The sharpest deterioration in the forecast concerns students. In January–May 2026, Finland received 3,534 first residence permit applications for studies, 25% fewer than in the same period of 2025. Migri has lowered its estimate for 2026 to 11,000–12,000 applications and expects roughly the same level in 2027.

The agency links the stagnation to three factors: the €100 application fee introduced in the joint application to higher education at the beginning of 2025, the move to full-cost tuition fees from autumn 2026 and Finland’s challenging labour market. Asian countries continued to stand out among the top applicant countries in January–May.

The Studyinfo application fee applies to applicants from outside the European Union, European Economic Area and Switzerland who apply for degree-leading higher education. The payment is tied to the start term of the study programme and must be paid by the deadline for an application to be processed.

For universities, this changes the economics of international recruitment. Finland previously offered itself as a relatively affordable, safe education destination with strong degrees and a possible post-graduation work route. Now a non-EU applicant has to compare not only degree quality, but the full budget: fees, tuition, living costs, insurance, the risk of not finding work and later residence-permit rules.

Work-based permits rise with industrial projects

Work-based migration looks more resilient. In January–May 2026, Finland received 6,156 first applications for a work-based residence permit, 16% more than a year earlier. After several years of decline, application numbers rose slightly. Migri says the increase is partly explained by ongoing industrial projects in Finland, including the maritime and shipbuilding industries and data centres, which have recruited labour from abroad. The agency forecasts 11,000–13,000 applications in 2026 and 12,000–14,000 in 2027 if the economy develops favourably.

Rising work-based applications do not mean an automatic policy loosening. In 2025, the Finnish government issued a decree on labour-shortage sectors where holders of residence permits for employed persons can seek work more flexibly. The stated aim was to facilitate labour supply in sectors facing shortages.

The long-term driver is demographic. Finland’s population is ageing, and some vacancies cannot be filled by the domestic labour market. Even under a more cautious policy, the country must keep channels open for foreign recruitment. The difference is that demand is becoming more selective: sectors with specific labour shortages are prioritised over broad inflows.

The labour market becomes Finland’s main migration filter

The new forecast shows a split between education and labour migration. The student route is cooling as entry costs rise and career expectations weaken. The work route is supported by industrial orders and skills shortages. Asylum and temporary protection remain more dependent on external crises than on Finland’s domestic economy.

For applicants, this means a more pragmatic environment. A residence permit for studies now requires not only an academic plan, but a more robust financial case. A work-based residence permit depends more heavily on the employer, the sector and fit with Finland’s labour market. For the state, the main question is whether Finland can keep control over migration flows without losing the people its economy needs.

as reported by International Investment experts, Migri’s forecast points not to a broad collapse in migration, but to Finland’s shift toward a costlier and more selective entry model. The country still needs workers, but the student pathway is becoming less mass-market and less predictable for non-EU applicants. The risk for Finland is that higher financial barriers may reduce not only weak applications, but also the inflow of motivated students who could help fill future labour shortages.

FAQ

What does Migri forecast for 2026–2027?

Migri expects 8,000–10,000 temporary-protection applicants per year, 1,500–2,500 first asylum applications annually, 11,000–12,000 student applications in 2026 and a similar level in 2027, plus 11,000–13,000 work-based applications in 2026 and 12,000–14,000 in 2027.

Why are student applications to Finland falling?

The decline is linked to the €100 joint-application fee, the move to full-cost tuition from autumn 2026 and Finland’s challenging labour market. These factors raise the cost and risk of studying in Finland for non-EU applicants.

Is work-based migration to Finland increasing?

Yes. First work-based residence permit applications rose 16% year-on-year in January–May 2026. Migri links the increase partly to industrial projects, including shipbuilding, maritime industries and data centres.

What is temporary protection in Finland?

Temporary protection is a special status for people fleeing a country in large numbers because of war or an emergency. For Ukrainians, the mechanism has been extended until March 2027.

What is instrumentalised migration?

Instrumentalised migration means artificially organised cross-border movement of people that can be used to pressure a state. Migri says such scenarios are not included in its ordinary asylum forecast.