Income Growth Cushions Dutch Energy Price Shock
Dutch households’ nominal spending on residential energy and motor fuel has moved above 2022 levels, but these costs still account for a substantially smaller share of income than during the previous energy crisis. Rising wages and benefits have supported the average figures, although about 503,000 households remain affected by energy poverty.
Nominal energy spending is close to a peak
Average spending on natural gas, electricity and motor fuel in the Netherlands remains close to historical highs. Much of the increase in residential energy bills occurred in 2023 and 2024, while filling-station expenditure reacted more quickly to the latest rise in oil prices.
The amount paid in euros does not provide a complete measure of affordability. Household incomes have also risen over the past four years, leaving energy-related costs lower as a proportion of income than in 2022.
An analysis by ING Think found that residential energy and motor fuel absorbed an average of 6.1% of income in June 2026. The share had reached 6.4% in April and was also 6.1% in December 2025. During the 2022 energy crisis, it rose well above 7%.
Residential energy expenditure is defined as net payments to gas and electricity suppliers, including settlements and refunds. Motor fuel spending is measured through transactions at filling stations. The figures are seasonally adjusted to remove recurring fluctuations across the year.
Fuel reacted faster than residential energy
Payments to residential energy suppliers remained relatively stable at about 3.4% of income during the first part of 2026. The larger movement occurred in motor fuel.
Fuel accounted for about 2.7% of income in December 2025. The share rose to 3.1% in April before starting to decline as oil prices retreated from their spring peaks and household incomes increased.
The difference reflects the speed at which wholesale prices reach consumers. Petrol and diesel respond relatively quickly to oil markets. Gas and electricity bills depend on the contract and the supplier’s purchasing strategy, meaning that wholesale increases may reach households weeks or months later.
The disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had a stronger effect on oil than on European natural gas. Gas prices also increased, but remained closer to the range seen in previous years than to the exceptional levels recorded in 2022.
Inflation eased while motor fuel remained expensive
Data published by Statistics Netherlands present a mixed picture. Headline inflation slowed from 3.5% in May to 2.9% in June 2026, while energy including motor fuel was 6% more expensive than a year earlier. Motor fuel alone cost 17.3% more year on year, down from a 27.5% increase in May (inflation). Real disposable household income, which is adjusted for inflation, increased by 2.7% in 2025, employee remuneration grew by 6.4%, and negotiated wages rose by 5% (income). At the same time, energy poverty affected an estimated 503,000 households, or 6% of the total, in 2025 (energy poverty).
These figures help explain why higher prices have not recreated the economy-wide shock of 2022. Income growth exceeded headline inflation for many employees, while households reduced their energy use following the previous crisis.
Average results do not imply identical outcomes. Costs vary with income, home size, energy efficiency, heating systems, car use and the terms of each household’s supply contract.
Energy poverty still affects 6% of households
The estimated number of low-income households with high energy costs increased from 385,000 in 2024 to 410,000 in 2025. Higher consumption and rising fixed supply charges for gas and electricity contributed to the increase.
The affordability gap measures the annual reduction in costs needed to move an affected household below the energy-poverty threshold. For low-income households with high energy bills, the average gap widened from €577 in 2024 to €624 in 2025.
Energy-poor homeowners faced an average gap of €967 a year. For households living in homes with extremely poor energy performance, the shortfall reached €1,295.
The conclusion that affordability remained resilient therefore applies to an average. It does not remove the pressure on low-income households, benefit recipients, single pensioners or residents of poorly insulated homes.
Contract type determines how quickly prices rise
Average variable gas tariffs for consumers increased by approximately 7% on July 1 compared with the previous month and were 12% above their pre-conflict level. Variable electricity tariffs rose by about 3%.
The Netherlands Authority for Consumers and Markets said suppliers commonly adjust variable tariffs around four times a year. Dynamic electricity prices can change every 15 minutes, while dynamic gas rates generally change daily.
Prices offered for fixed contracts fell by 1% to 6% in July compared with June. A fixed contract protects the customer against tariff increases during its term but also prevents the household from immediately benefiting from a later market decline. Early termination may involve a compensation payment.
Wholesale gas prices moved from approximately €51 per megawatt-hour to €41 before rising again to around €54. That volatility means the effect on household bills will differ significantly and appear at different times.
Income supported spending, not confidence
The ING figures show little broad-based deterioration in energy affordability across the income groups represented in the sample. Even for the lowest-income decile, the share of income devoted to energy and fuel changed relatively little. Every income group in the panel spent a smaller proportion than in 2022 before subsidies took effect.
Consumer sentiment weakened more sharply than actual spending. Confidence stood at minus 39 in June, up from minus 46 in May but still far below the 20-year average of minus 11.
De Nederlandsche Bank expects inflation of 2.7% and economic growth of 0.8% in 2026. Higher energy costs, weak confidence and softer external demand are expected to restrain the economy, although the central bank does not currently forecast a repeat of the 2022 inflation peak.
ING expects Dutch consumer spending growth to remain muted but positive. Underlying income gains provide support, while uncertainty encourages households to save more and delay major purchases.
The ING sample does not cover every household
The analysis uses aggregated transaction data from a panel of approximately 15,000 ING customer households aged between 20 and 80. The sample was stratified by province and age and then weighted by age and income decile.
It includes households receiving income from employment, pensions, benefits or allowances. Self-employed households are excluded. The findings are therefore not a substitute for official population-wide statistics and cannot be applied automatically to every Dutch household.
The study also reflects transactions processed through ING. Payments made through other institutions, in cash or through accounts outside the dataset may not be fully captured. The results show changes within the bank’s panel rather than the exact distribution of energy pressure across the Netherlands.
The government is preparing a €193 million fund
The Dutch government has allocated €193 million to a new energy fund expected to open later in 2026. It estimates that approximately 500,000 households could receive assistance.
The announced eligibility rules cover households earning up to 130% of the social minimum when energy costs absorb at least 8% of gross income. For households earning between 130% and 200% of the social minimum, the threshold is 10%.
The fund is expected to cover half of the energy costs above the relevant threshold. Applications should remain open for at least four months and be accepted digitally and on paper. The opening date had not yet been finalised.
Risks remain for the second half of 2026
The ING transaction figures run through June and do not capture subsequent oil-market volatility. The 6.1% ratio should therefore not be treated as a forecast for autumn or the heating season.
The European Commission said on July 24 that the European Union faced no immediate shortage of crude oil or petroleum products because demand could still be met through commercial stocks and alternative supply. A prolonged conflict could tighten markets over the following weeks and months.
Delayed transmission to household contracts is another risk. Even without a return to peak wholesale prices, the expiry of favourable fixed contracts or the revision of variable tariffs may increase costs for individual households.
As International Investment experts report, income growth has reduced the probability of a repeat of the 2022 household energy crisis, but national averages conceal large differences between households and properties. Investors need to examine a building’s energy rating, insulation requirements, heating system, supply contract and tenant affordability rather than relying only on inflation and wage figures. Gas-intensive, poorly insulated assets remain exposed to higher operating costs and affordability risks even when the aggregate household position appears resilient.
FAQ: Dutch Household Energy Spending
How much income do Dutch households spend on energy and fuel?
The average was 6.1% in the ING panel in June 2026. This includes net payments to gas and electricity suppliers and expenditure at filling stations.
Why is the burden lower than in 2022?
Nominal costs have risen, but wages, pensions and benefits have also increased. Households have additionally reduced energy consumption since the previous crisis.
Does the ING result mean energy is affordable for everyone?
No. An estimated 503,000 households experienced energy poverty in 2025, with low-income residents of inefficient homes facing the greatest pressure.
Which contracts react most quickly to wholesale prices?
Dynamic contracts follow wholesale markets most closely. Variable tariffs are usually revised several times a year, while fixed tariffs remain unchanged until the agreed term ends.
Could the 2022 energy crisis be repeated?
Current household data do not indicate a repeat on the same scale. The risk would increase if supply disruptions persisted, wholesale prices rose further or higher tariffs reached a larger number of residential contracts.
Who may qualify for the new energy fund?
The proposed rules cover households earning up to 200% of the social minimum when their energy bill exceeds the relevant income threshold. The fund is expected to open later in 2026.