WTTC Warns of Risks from Proposed ESTA Changes

Proposed ESTA rules raise entry barriers

The World Travel and Tourism Council has issued a warning that proposed changes to the U.S. ESTA system could cause long-term damage to the country’s tourism sector. The measures under discussion may require travellers to disclose more extensive personal information, including broader access to social media data. According to WTTC, even the prospect of such changes is already shaping negative expectations among potential visitors.

Early awareness signals future demand erosion

WTTC’s findings are based on a multi-country survey across ESTA-eligible markets combined with economic modelling carried out with GSIQ and Oxford Economics. One of the most alarming indicators is the level of early awareness. Sixty-six percent of respondents said they are already familiar with the proposed changes, suggesting that demand erosion may begin well before any policy is implemented.

Travel intentions show sustained decline

The survey indicates that 34 percent of respondents would be somewhat or much less likely to visit the United States over the next two to three years if the changes are introduced. Only 12 percent said they would be more likely to travel, resulting in a significant net decline in intent. WTTC stresses that once travellers shift away from a destination, regaining market share can take years, particularly when competitors offer simpler and more predictable entry processes.

Destination perception faces lasting damage

Beyond immediate travel plans, the research highlights potential long-term damage to the perception of the United States as a welcoming destination. Most respondents said the proposed policy would not improve their personal safety, while many indicated it could make them feel less comfortable travelling to the U.S. WTTC warns that perception-driven damage is especially difficult to reverse and could affect leisure, business travel, conferences and repeat visitation well into the future.

Competitive disadvantage in global tourism

When compared with entry systems in the UK, Japan, Canada and Western Europe, the proposed ESTA changes are viewed as significantly more intrusive. WTTC notes that while many competing destinations are simplifying entry procedures, the U.S. risks moving in the opposite direction. Over time, this could result in a structural competitive disadvantage, particularly in high-value long-haul markets.

Economic impact and job losses

WTTC’s high-impact scenario suggests the U.S. could receive 4.7 million fewer international arrivals in 2026, representing a 23.7 percent decline from ESTA markets compared with a business-as-usual baseline. Visitor spending could fall by up to USD 15.7 billion, while wider Travel and Tourism GDP losses may reach USD 21.5 billion. The council estimates that more than 157,000 jobs could be lost, with recovery taking at least a full quarter.

Long-term setback for exports and growth

Tourism remains one of the United States’ largest export industries, generating foreign income through international visitors. WTTC points out that the U.S. has already lost around 11 million international visitors between 2019 and 2025. Additional barriers could lock in a prolonged recovery gap, reducing the sector’s ability to invest, innovate and create jobs.

Policy decisions shape future competitiveness

While recognising the importance of border security, WTTC emphasises that policy choices must be assessed through a long-term economic lens. Even modest behavioural shifts among travellers can translate into lasting losses when applied across millions of potential visitors.

Expert conclusion

As reported by International Investment experts, the proposed ESTA changes could structurally weaken U.S. inbound tourism. Reduced demand, job losses and declining export revenues may have lasting effects, making future recovery more complex and costly.