Russia’s Air Transport Market: Declining Profits and Passenger Traffic

Photo: Unsplash

Passenger traffic of Russian airlines decreased to 73.7 million people (-2.2%) in January–August 2025, reported TASS, citing Rosaviatsiya data. The figure for airports declined by 0.9% to 144.6 million. Experts expect the situation to improve within a couple of years.

In the Aeroflot Group, the number of passengers fell by 0.1% year-on-year to 42.5 million. On domestic routes, 32.7 million passengers were carried, and on international ones – 9.8 million. The seat occupancy rate reached 89.9% (+0.1 p.p.). In September 2025, the group carried 5 million passengers, 5.7% fewer than a year earlier.

The corporation’s adjusted profit in the first half of 2025 dropped sixfold compared to the same period of 2024 – to 4.2 billion rubles, wrote Vedomosti, citing the company’s IFRS report. Adjusted EBITDA for six months decreased by 31% to 82.8 billion rubles year-on-year. Profitability fell from 31% to 20%. At the same time, the group’s net debt as of June 30 amounted to 476 billion rubles, which is 20% less than at the end of last year. This is explained by a reduction in lease liabilities for aircraft amid the strengthening of the national currency.

Aeroflot’s own passenger traffic declined by 2.7% over eight months to 22.6 million passengers, and by 7.9% in the first month of autumn to 2.7 million. Nevertheless, it remained among the country’s top five largest carriers, along with Pobeda, S7 (Siberia), Rossiya, and Ural Airlines. The Top-5 accounted for 70.3% of all air transport operations.



The recovery of indicators is being hindered by the geopolitical situation and flight restrictions to the country’s southern airports. The market also is affected by problems with the supply of spare parts, maintenance, and insurance for foreign aircraft. Air-raid alerts, which periodically cause flight delays and cancellations, continue to impact the industry as well.

One of the largest aviation disruptions occurred in Russia on May 6–7, 2025. At least 350 flights were affected, and more than 60,000 people were unable to depart on time. The emergency situation was observed at all Moscow airports, as well as in Sochi, Kazan, Perm, and several other cities. From May 1 to July 21, airports suspended operations more than 260 times. On average, 30–40 terminals temporarily halted work each month, and the number of cancelled flights over three months approached one thousand.

In addition, Aeroflot suffered from a hacker attack. The perpetrators claimed to have destroyed about 7,000 servers and gained access to databases, internal networks, and video surveillance systems. The company confirmed an IT service outage. As a result, 42 flights were cancelled at Moscow airports on July 28.



The Ministry of Economic Development reports that passenger traffic of Russian airlines in 2025 will amount to 109.6 million people – 1.9% less than in 2024. Rosaviatsiya forecasts a similar decline of 1.9%. The head of the agency, Dmitry Yadrov, explained that this is "the minimum threshold we must ensure". The Ministry of Transport expects to maintain last year’s volume – 111.7 million.

Oleg Panteleev, Executive Director of the Aviaport agency, noted that the purchase of foreign-made aircraft remains unavailable to Russian airlines, and deliveries of domestic liners have not yet started. However, passenger interest in foreign travel is increasing again, and a noticeable rise in foreign airline traffic – by 10–20% – is expected. At the same time, a slight decline among Russian carriers is possible.

Industry representatives believe that the mounting difficulties will not hinder development, and that air transport will continue to grow in the long term. By 2028, under the baseline forecast, passenger numbers will increase to 126.7 million (+13.5% compared to 2024), and under the conservative scenario – to 118.5 million (+6.1%).