Baby Boomers Could Crash Switzerland’s Housing Market

Photo: Swissinfo

The mass retirement of the baby boomer generation could trigger a housing price collapse in Switzerland, reports Swissinfo. Experts warn of a looming “silver tsunami” – a demographic-driven wave of property sales.

While housing prices in Germany, France, and Austria have already started to decline, Switzerland’s market is still climbing. The Federal Statistical Office (FSO) forecasts population growth from 9 million to 10.5 million over the next 30 years, reinforcing the view of property as “concrete gold.” But Hendrik Budliger, head of the Demografik Center, calls this confidence misleading. He argues that today’s high prices are temporary and that a market correction is inevitable.

Budliger points to two key risks: overly optimistic population growth assumptions and the aging of baby boomers, who own much of Switzerland’s housing stock. With fertility at a record low of 1.28 children per woman, fewer young buyers will be available to absorb the flood of properties hitting the market.

By 2030, many retirees may no longer qualify to renew their mortgages, forcing them to sell. Demografik predicts that once the downturn begins, sales will accelerate quickly as owners rush to offload homes before prices fall further.

The “silver tsunami” is expected to hit regions unevenly. Rural and mountain cantons such as Graubünden, Bern, and Ticino face the highest risks, while major cities may be shielded by demand from migrants and limited new construction. Still, UBS, Zürcher Kantonalbank, and other analysts caution that demographic trends could reshape the housing landscape in unpredictable ways.

According to Tages-Anzeiger, more than 400,000 homes currently owned by baby boomers will be sold or inherited by 2045. While this could ease Switzerland’s chronic housing shortage, experts like Robert Weinert of Wüest Partner believe the effect will be limited: “Housing will remain a scarce resource for many years.”

With mortgage debt already at CHF 1.3 trillion, just one-third less than Germany’s despite a population nine times smaller, Switzerland’s real estate market may be far more vulnerable than many assume.