Spain is considering the possibility of admitting one million migrants each year

Spain's Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) and the Bank of Spain have proposed that in order to save the national pension system, the country should admit approximately one million immigrants per year, according to the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF).

This proposal has sparked broad public and expert debate. Instead of boosting the birth rate or implementing structural reforms, the institutions suggest offsetting demographic weakness with an external influx of working-age population.

Spain’s Pension System: A Deepening Crisis



In theory, an influx of one million migrants per year could result in 700,000 new contributors to the pension system, according to the Bank of Spain. However, this model relies on simplified assumptions:

swift labor market integration for the majority of migrants;

no significant additional costs for social infrastructure;

minimal social tension;

stable economic development.


Economic Costs of Mass Immigration



According to Fundación Civismo and the Centro de Estudios de Políticas Públicas, each newly arrived migrant costs the state between €3,000 and €5,000 during their first years of residence, including expenses for social housing, aid, education, and healthcare.

Logistical and Institutional Constraints

Spain already admits around 400,000 migrants annually and struggles with their integration. Tripling this flow would require:

a sharp increase in the number of schools, hospitals, and social services;

labor market reform to absorb such a volume of workers;

a revision of the social benefits distribution system.

All this amid a budget deficit and the absence of a long-term strategy for migration infrastructure, notes El Pais.


The Social and Political Price

According to experts cited by the Financial Times, mass immigration often becomes a catalyst for:

social tension in regions with high migrant concentrations;

rising xenophobia and political radicalization;

ethno-religious conflicts;

increased pressure on housing markets and local services.

Even in Germany and Sweden, with more resilient economies and institutions, mass immigration has led to social overload, as agreed by analysts in Deutsche Welle.


Delayed and Limited Benefits

Even if 70% of migrants integrate into the formal labor market within a few years, fiscal benefits will not be immediate. Expert models show that immigration’s net contribution to pension sustainability will only turn positive after 2035. Until then: deficits and rising public debt.

AIReF’s Own Indications: The Problem Runs Deeper

AIReF admits that demographic solutions are only temporary. The core reason behind fiscal unsustainability is an overly generous and inflexible pension system that is unadapted to new demographic realities.

Without raising the retirement age, adjusting the replacement rate, and differentiating pension payments, immigration cannot be a sustainable rescue tool.

Alternative Policy Directions

Boosting birth rates: tax incentives, subsidies for families with children, affordable housing.

Pension system reform: shift to a mixed model (partial capitalization), stricter retirement conditions.

Reintegration of inactive population: retraining programs for the unemployed and women outside the labor market.

Moderate, skills-based immigration: attracting needed specialists with a high likelihood of integration.

Importing one million migrants annually as a tool to save the pension system is a high-risk, costly, and socially unsustainable measure. It does not address the core problems of the pension model but merely postpones inevitable reform while exacerbating fiscal and social imbalances. A rational policy should be based on a comprehensive solution: structural reforms, internal demographic support, and moderate, skilled immigration.