Jet fuel shortage in Russia: supplies cut by 30%

Russian airline Azimut has reported a sharp deterioration in the domestic jet fuel market. According to the carrier, deliveries of aviation kerosene have fallen by about one-third, while prices have risen by more than 17% since early June. The company warned of risks to its flight schedule and called for measures to stabilize the market.

Jet fuel supply cuts in Russia

Azimut airline has described the situation on the aviation fuel market as critical and warned of risks to its flight program. The carrier has appealed to the Association of Air Transport Operators (AATO) to initiate a request to the Ministry of Energy and secure stabilizing measures, which, according to the company, require immediate action.

Azimut said that in early June its main supplier notified it of the need to reduce aviation kerosene consumption by about one-third of the declared volumes starting from the second half of the month. The reason cited was force majeure at oil refineries, which led to reduced fuel availability on the market. The airline also noted that alternative suppliers do not have sufficient capacity to offset the shortfall.

Rising jet fuel prices in Russia

Jet fuel prices in Russia are also showing significant growth. According to the airline, average price increases at Russian airports since early June have exceeded 17%, and in some cases are significantly higher. In Makhachkala, kerosene prices rose by 64% to 157,000 rubles ($2,100) per ton excluding VAT. The company also notes that global jet fuel prices have been declining for three consecutive months.

Kommerstant reports that rising costs are also being recorded on routes from Mineralnye Vody to Moscow, Sochi, and Rostov-on-Don, as well as on seasonal flights to Anapa and Krasnodar.

The over-the-counter kerosene index at Moscow aviation hub airports rose to 111,400 rubles ($1,493) per ton including VAT, while the exchange index in airport fuel storage facilities exceeded 106,500 rubles ($1,428) per ton on June 19, marking record levels. At the same time, global jet fuel prices are declining. According to IATA, the average price of kerosene for the week ending June 12 was $138.9 per barrel, nearly 12% lower than a month earlier. Market participants attribute the decline to expectations of de-escalation around Iran and a resulting drop in global fuel prices.

The fuel damper is losing effectiveness

Against the backdrop of record domestic kerosene prices and falling global benchmarks, the fuel damper mechanism — which compensates airlines for part of fuel costs — is becoming less effective.

According to Reuters estimates, between February and May airlines may have received around 76 billion rubles (over $1 billion) in state support. Market participants believe that further reductions in payouts would significantly increase pressure on the industry, as the compensation mechanism no longer offsets rising domestic fuel costs.

Regulation of the fuel market in Russia

From June 1 to November 30, the Russian government introduced a ban on aviation kerosene exports to stabilize the domestic fuel market.

The Federal Air Transport Agency, on the instruction of Deputy Transport Minister Vladimir Poteshkin, requested airlines to provide data on purchases of TS-1 aviation kerosene on exchange markets through September 2026 as part of monitoring aviation fuel markets, the publication Expert reported.

The National Exchange Price Agency said that from January to June 15, 2026, kerosene sales on the St. Petersburg Exchange totaled 523,400 tons, down 28.3% year-on-year due to reduced supply from producers. Market participants note that airlines mostly rely on direct contracts with oil companies, while exchange prices serve as a benchmark for pricing agreements.

Outlook for Russian air transport

The industry Telegram channel Aviatorshina notes that actual jet fuel costs for airlines in June roughly doubled compared to May. In July, they could triple if compensation payments are fully discontinued. Airline expenses in Russia may increase by at least 15 billion rubles ($200 million) in the near term. This translates to roughly 1,000–1,500 rubles ($14–20) per passenger. Some carriers have already warned passengers about possible ticket price increases.

Azimut warns that its planned flight program is “losing all economic sense” on international routes and even more so on domestic ones. IrAero also informed passengers on June 19 of potential fare increases due to rising fuel costs.

Impact on tourism and related industries

Analysts at International Investment note that reduced jet fuel supplies and rising kerosene prices are putting additional pressure on air transport costs. For the tourism market, this primarily means higher ticket prices and reduced affordability of flights, especially on domestic and southern routes that dominate mass tourism.

Higher operating costs quickly feed into package tour prices and reduce tour operator margins. As a result, demand may shift toward shorter trips or alternative transport, while domestic tourism becomes more sensitive to price fluctuations.

Regions heavily dependent on air connectivity face risks of lower tourist flows and reduced infrastructure utilization, from airports to hotels. Overall, rising carrier costs are gradually reshaping travel demand patterns.

Additional pressure on the market comes from frequent flight delays and cancellations linked to drone attacks, increasing instability and affecting travel planning.