Capital Returns to Dutch Commercial Property

Investment in Dutch commercial real estate continues to rise despite higher borrowing costs. Transaction volumes reached €3.4 billion in the third quarter of 2026, more than 8% above a year earlier, while investment over the first nine months climbed 27% to €10.5 billion. The recovery in dealmaking, however, does not automatically mean that asset prices are increasing.

Investment volumes rise 27% in nine months

Figures released by CBRE Netherlands on 14 October show €3.4 billion of transactions in Q3 and €10.5 billion in January–September, compared with approximately €8.3 billion a year earlier. The figures measure investment transactions rather than growth in property valuations or rents. CBRE expects the full-year total to reach about €15 billion; the available asset pipeline could support around €16 billion, although this is not its central forecast.

First-half investment amounted to approximately €7 billion, up 36% year on year. Growth over the first nine months moderated to 27%, but buyers and sellers continued to complete deals.

Why more deals are closing despite expensive debt

Financing rates for commercial real estate rose by approximately 70 basis points over the summer. More expensive debt raises acquisition and refinancing costs and puts pressure on asset valuations. CBRE says rental growth had supported gradual increases in property values, but higher financing costs could reverse that trend.

A recovery in transaction volumes can occur without a recovery in prices. Buyers and sellers may agree on valuations that reflect more expensive credit and different expected returns. Financing also remains available: alternative lenders are expanding and banks continue to compete for suitable borrowers.

CBRE's midyear review observed that Dutch property returns increasingly depend on rental income, rental growth and asset improvements rather than falling property yields. International investors accounted for around 31% of first-half acquisitions, below the 59% average recorded for 2016–2022. Domestic capital remains a major part of the recovery.

Residential leads, but rental stock faces losses

More than €4.5 billion of January–September investment went into residential property. Approximately €2.1 billion supported new developments expected to provide some 6,500 homes in the coming years, while another €2.4 billion went into existing residential assets.

CBRE reports that 87% of acquisitions of existing housing were intended for eventual individual resale to owner-occupiers. It estimates that around 8,400 homes will gradually leave institutional rental portfolios. These homes do not disappear physically; their ownership and availability for long-term renting change.

Higher interest rates also make for-sale housing developments more difficult to finance. CBRE expects some developers to explore shifting schemes towards rental accommodation or healthcare property. More housing transactions therefore do not necessarily translate into a larger institutional rental stock.

Retail property attracts renewed interest

Retail investment volume in the first three quarters already equalled the total for all of 2025, making it the third-largest investment segment. CBRE identifies stabilising non-food e-commerce sales, a broadly stable retail property stock, household growth and recovering rents as supporting factors. Demand for investable retail property is now exceeding the supply of suitable assets in parts of the market.

The press release does not provide directly comparable investment yields for each sector, so stronger deal volumes alone cannot establish that retail assets offer better returns.

Offices and logistics could pick up in Q4

Office and logistics investment remains behind other sectors. CBRE anticipates more transactions towards year-end as supply improves. German open-ended property funds facing liquidity pressures are bringing assets to market, giving prospective buyers a wider choice.

Additional supply may create opportunities, but asset quality, lease terms, operating costs and refurbishment requirements remain central to pricing. Higher financing costs can also extend negotiations and closing timelines.

The limits of the recovery

CBRE's principal forecast is around €15 billion of investment for 2026, although its pipeline suggests €16 billion could be possible. Longer transaction processes and an expected reduction in residential property transfer tax for investors are among the reasons some transactions may be delayed.

The Dutch market is demonstrating greater transaction liquidity in the face of expensive debt. Yet rising volumes should not be confused with across-the-board capital value gains. Rental income, financing conditions, pricing discipline and regulation will shape the next stage.

A European comparison

As International Investment has reported, Europe's real estate investment recovery remains uneven across countries and sectors. The Netherlands illustrates how capital can return to income-generating assets without a simultaneous broad-based rise in their values, while taxation and regulation still influence investors' decisions.

FAQ

How much was invested in Dutch real estate in 2026?

€10.5 billion in the first nine months, up 27% year on year, including €3.4 billion in Q3.

Why are volumes rising despite higher financing costs?

Credit remains available through competing lenders and buyers and sellers are finding prices at which transactions can proceed.

Which sectors attract the most investment?

Residential accounts for more than €4.5 billion in nine-month investment. Retail has become the third-largest sector.

Does greater investment activity mean property prices are rising?

No. CBRE warns that rising financing costs may put downward pressure on property valuations.

What is CBRE's 2026 investment forecast?

Approximately €15 billion, against an estimated €16 billion of potential volume based on available assets.