Winter 2025 market report signals cautious recovery
The Notaires de France have released their annual residential market report for 2025, confirming a year of recovery after the contraction of 2023 and 2024. Transaction volumes increased, mortgage rates stabilised and buyer confidence gradually improved.
Although activity has not returned to peak levels, the data indicate a balanced revival rather than speculative overheating.
Transaction volumes and price stability
Between 920,000 and 940,000 residential sales are expected for 2025, representing an 11 percent increase compared to 2024. The stabilisation of mortgage rates around 3–3.2 percent has been the primary driver of renewed activity.
Price movements have remained largely stable. Existing apartments recorded a modest 0.3 percent increase in the second quarter of 2025, while resale houses showed flat performance. The market is improving but remains below historic highs.
Regional dynamics and growth areas
The French market continues to display strong regional variation. Paris saw price growth of around 1.5 percent, while Bordeaux experienced a slight decline. Lyon and Toulouse remain stable.
Brittany recorded a 25 percent increase in foreign inquiries, reflecting its affordability and coastal appeal. Premium Alpine resorts such as Courchevel and Megève reported price growth of approximately 7 percent ahead of the 2030 Winter Olympics.
Provence and the Côte d’Azur posted an 11 percent increase in luxury villa sales, driven by European and American buyers. Normandy and Grand-Est remain more price-stable, offering negotiation opportunities.
Historic properties and energy regulations
The château and historic property segment remains resilient, with prices in the Loire Valley, Dordogne and Provence rising 2–4 percent in prime areas.
However, energy efficiency regulations are reshaping the market. Since January 2025, G-rated properties can no longer be legally rented, with F-rated homes facing similar restrictions by 2028. Renovation costs or price reductions of 10–15 percent are increasingly common for inefficient properties.
Buyer demographics and foreign demand
American buyers remain highly active, with interest up roughly 30 percent compared to 2024. German, Dutch and Scandinavian demand is also strengthening, while British activity has stabilised post-Brexit.
Domestic buyers are gradually returning, supported by improved credit access, though affordability constraints persist.
Policy, rates and investment outlook
The European Central Bank’s decision to maintain its deposit rate at 2 percent signals monetary stability. Inflation control and easing borrowing conditions support cautious optimism.
Rental demand remains strong in cities such as Lyon, Toulouse and Nantes, where yields reach around 5.1 percent. Yet regulatory constraints and high taxation limit aggressive return expectations.
As reported by experts at International Investment, the French property market in 2026 offers stability rather than high yield. Elevated taxation, energy compliance costs and significant transaction expenses constrain profitability. Strategic investment focused on prime locations and energy-efficient assets remains the most prudent approach.