Italy’s population at the start of 2026 was virtually unchanged for the first time in 12 years, but the shift did not come from a baby boom. It came from migration. New data show that inflows from abroad almost fully offset the country’s natural population decline, while births fell to another record low and population ageing continued.
Why Italy’s population stopped falling in 2026
Reuters focused on the central demographic paradox: after 12 years of decline, Italy’s population has effectively stabilized even though the country’s domestic demographic base remains weak. According to preliminary ISTAT data, Italy had 58.943 million residents on January 1, 2026, just 636 fewer than a year earlier. That is essentially flat, but after more than a decade of contraction it marks a clear statistical turning point.
ISTAT was explicit that this stabilization was made possible only by very strong net migration. In other words, Italy has not solved its demographic crisis; it has temporarily offset it through external inflows. That distinction matters because Italian politics often treats family policy and migration as separate debates, while the new numbers show that they are now directly tied together.
Migration offset Italy’s natural population decline
The key figure in the ISTAT release is net international migration of plus 296,000 in 2025. Arrivals from abroad totaled 440,000, while emigration abroad fell to 144,000. That positive migration balance almost entirely offset the natural decrease of about 296,000 people caused by the gap between births and deaths. That is the basis for Reuters’ conclusion that migration halted Italy’s long population decline.
The composition of the shift is equally important. As of January 1, 2026, the foreign resident population reached 5.56 million, up by 188,000 over the year, while the number of Italian citizens residing in the country fell by 189,000. That means overall stability was achieved while the Italian population itself kept shrinking and the share of foreign residents rose to 9.4% of the total.
Italy’s births fell to another record low
The stabilization in headline population numbers did not change the underlying demographic weakness. In 2025, Italy recorded 355,000 births, down 3.9% from the previous year and the lowest figure since the country’s unification in 1861. Deaths totaled 652,000, leaving a deeply negative natural balance.
The total fertility rate fell further to 1.14 children per woman. That is far below the replacement level of roughly 2.1. ISTAT links the decline to delayed parenthood and to the shrinking size of the cohorts now entering childbearing age, meaning the problem is not only behavioral but also structural.
Italy is still ageing despite higher migration
At the same time, Italy continues to age rapidly. ISTAT says the population aged 65 and over has reached 14.821 million, or 25.1% of all residents, while the number aged 85 and over rose to 2.511 million. That confirms that migration may cushion overall population loss, but it does not reverse the age imbalance weighing on the labor market, pensions and healthcare.
Life expectancy also kept rising after the pandemic years, reaching 81.7 years for men and 85.7 years for women. That is a sign of social resilience, but demographically it intensifies the pressure on the age structure unless births and younger cohorts recover.
Why Italy’s demographic crisis is not over
The current pause in decline does not mean Italy has escaped its longer-term demographic downturn. ISTAT’s official projection page says the country’s population, now around 59 million, is expected to fall to 54.7 million by 2050 under the current base scenario. That makes the 2026 stabilization look more like a migration-supported pause than a durable reversal.
The regional picture also remains uneven. Population is growing in northern Italy, broadly stable in the center, and still shrinking in the south. That means migration and domestic mobility are not only supporting the national total, but also reinforcing a territorial shift toward the stronger economic regions.
As International Investment experts report, Italy in 2026 has not overcome its demographic crisis; it has only temporarily halted the statistical decline in population through migration. That is economically meaningful in the short term, but the country’s long-run stability still depends on births, age structure and its ability to retain younger generations.
FAQ about Italy’s demographic shift
Question: Why did Italy’s population stop shrinking after 12 years?
Answer: Because strong net migration almost fully offset the country’s natural population decline.
Question: What is Italy’s population at the start of 2026?
Answer: Preliminary ISTAT data put it at 58.943 million residents on January 1, 2026.
Question: How many births were recorded in Italy in 2025?
Answer: 355,000, a new record low.
Question: What was Italy’s net migration gain in 2025?
Answer: About 296,000 people.
Question: Is Italy’s demographic crisis over?
Answer: No. Official projections still show a substantial population decline by mid-century.