UK Net Migration Returns to Normal

Photo: Migration observatory

UK net migration has fallen sharply back to levels comparable with the pre-Brexit period, but the composition of inflows and outflows has shifted materially. New estimates from the Office for National Statistics put net migration at around 204,000 in the year ending June 2025. That represents a drop of roughly 720,000 from the peak above 900,000 reached two years earlier.

What drove the collapse in net migration

The decline was primarily driven by a large reduction in non-EU net migration, which fell by around 662,000 over the two-year period. At the same time, EU and British net migration were both negative, pulling the overall total lower. EU net migration is estimated at around -70,000, while British net migration is around -109,000. These negative contributions matter because they reduce the headline figure even though non-EU net migration remains comparatively high at about 383,000—roughly double the levels seen shortly before Brexit in 2018 and 2019.

A key nuance is that much EU movement reflects people with EUSS status who originally arrived under free movement before Brexit and are now leaving. This negative net migration is unlikely to persist indefinitely, meaning today’s headline “return to normal” may not be structurally stable.

Work and study routes contracted fastest

Among non-EU migrants, net migration fell mainly because work and study routes shrank markedly. Over the two-year period, net migration via work declined by about 70%, and via study by about 62%. The sharpest swing came from student dependants: net migration in this category was about 123,000 in the year ending June 2023, but had turned negative by the year ending June 2025, implying roughly 13,000 more people leaving than arriving. This change followed restrictions introduced in 2024 on students’ right to bring family members.

Home Office data published around the same time indicates the decline continued after June 2025. A notable driver was the closure of the Health and Care visa route to overseas recruitment of care workers in July 2025. In the year ending September 2025, around 133,000 Skilled Worker visas were granted (including health and care), down about 57% from the same period a year earlier.

Asylum now accounts for a larger share

The only major category that did not decline was asylum. Long-term immigration of asylum seekers was around 96,000 in the year ending June 2025, accounting for about 11% of all immigration—roughly double the share in 2019. Because relatively few asylum migrants emigrate, net migration for people seeking asylum was around 90,000 in the same period, equivalent to about 44% of total net migration. This is also around double the pre-Brexit share, which was reported at 22% in 2019.

In practical terms, this means the “headline” number can look normalized while the operational and fiscal pressure becomes more concentrated in the asylum system, where accommodation, decision-making capacity and integration support are central constraints.

Backlogs: progress and new bottlenecks

The data indicate progress in reducing the backlog awaiting an initial decision, falling from around 119,000 to 81,000 by the end of September 2025. However, applications remain high, at around 110,000 in the year to 30 September—reported as the highest on record for any one-year period since comparable records began in 1979. Meanwhile, a growing appeals backlog has complicated the government’s effort to end the use of asylum hotels. The number of asylum seekers in hotels rose to around 36,000 by the end of September 2025, while total asylum support caseloads increased to around 112,000.

Why composition matters economically

The central analytical point is that economic impacts depend on who migrates, not simply how many. Much of the decline has come from groups often seen as mid-spectrum in terms of economic impact, such as care workers and student dependants. At the same time, fewer people are entering through skilled worker visas and a higher share of migrants are coming through the asylum system, where immediate support needs are typically higher. As a result, the composition of migration may have become less favourable from an economic perspective even as net migration returns to pre-Brexit totals.

As International Investment experts report, the headline return of UK net migration to “normal” levels masks a structural rebalancing: the UK is shrinking work and study flows faster than asylum-related pressures. This can translate into higher fiscal strain in accommodation and appeals while tightening the labour market for skilled roles, particularly as Skilled Worker grants fall and care recruitment routes are narrowed.