Thailand at Risk of Losing up to 3 Million Tourists Due to Middle East War
AFP
Thailand’s economy heavily depends on tourism, which contributes about 12% of its GDP. This sector was previously affected by the pandemic and subsequent domestic crises, ranging from destructive earthquakes to floods. In spring 2026, the industry faced new pressure from external geopolitical factors. The war in the Middle East could sharply reduce visitor numbers and result in losses of around $6 billion, Bloomberg reports.
Foreign Visitors in Thailand: Trends
In 2025, Thailand welcomed 32.97 million foreign tourists, down 7.23% compared to 2024. The largest share came from Asia — 22 million, Europe — over 8.25 million, and more than 750,000 visitors from Middle Eastern countries.
From January 1 to March 22, 2026, the kingdom received 8.54 million guests, about 3% fewer than the same period in 2025. Air travel in Thailand has almost fully recovered, with daily cancellations dropping from hundreds to fewer than 30. Nevertheless, tourism remains vulnerable to external shocks. The Middle East war complicates the recovery of an industry that accounts for roughly 12% of the country’s GDP.
Aviation Crisis and Thailand’s Visa Extensions
Military escalation and enhanced air defense measures in the region have led to the closure of certain air routes. Major Middle Eastern airlines, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad, were forced to cancel flights or reroute. These carriers play a key role as transit operators between Europe, Asia, and tourist destinations in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia.
Many travelers were effectively stranded. In response, Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, together with the Immigration Bureau, developed a special mechanism for short-term visa extensions for tourists.
Extensions are granted on the basis of force majeure. For many foreigners, the application procedures have been simplified, and some administrative fees have been temporarily reduced or waived.
Economic Impact of the Crisis in Thailand
Global airlines operating international routes, including flights to Thailand, are experiencing a difficult period due to sharp increases in oil prices. Rising operational costs force carriers to raise fares, directly affecting travel costs.
Consumer behavior has split: some tourists cancel planned trips, while others rush to book tickets at current rates to lock in prices before further increases. Although Thailand’s air travel situation is stabilizing, the general trend of rising travel costs remains a major deterrent for mass-market tourists.
Tourism Forecasts in Thailand
The Thai government initially set an ambitious target of 35 million foreign arrivals for 2026. However, the current scenario could push figures back to 2023 levels, when 28 million travelers visited the kingdom. Natthriya Thaweevong, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, noted that continued escalation in the Middle East could reduce arrivals by 3 million. This would cost the economy 150 billion baht ($5.9 billion), roughly 10% of total foreign tourism receipts in 2025.
“The heart of tourism is the journey, and for that journey, you need fuel,” Natthriya said. “All market participants are affected and face equally high costs. We will lose tourists from around the world.” Even if a ceasefire occurs immediately by the end of March 2026, the sector is expected to lose between 1 and 2 million visitors.
New Strategy for Attracting Tourists
Program for the Middle East
Thailand has developed a program to offset the decline. In particular, the plan aims to attract more affluent tourists from Middle Eastern countries, targeting around 200,000 visitors. Travelers from the region are willing to pay higher fares for charter and commercial flights. Average spending reaches 80,000 baht ($2,560) per trip. For comparison: Europe — 61,000 baht ($1,950), Asia — 39,000 baht ($1,250).
Medical Tourism Factor
Attracting wealthy tourists focuses not only on beach destinations. Thailand is promoting itself as a global medical tourism hub. Key players include leading private hospitals such as Bangkok Dusit Medical Services and Bumrungrad Hospital.
Domestic Tourism and Regional Flow
Thailand seeks to compensate for distant-route disruptions with travelers from China, South Korea, and Japan, though their spending is significantly lower. In April, measures to stimulate domestic tourism will be introduced, including travel incentives and support for the hotel industry through tax reductions or debt moratoriums. Ensuring sufficient fuel for tour buses is also considered a way to support the sector.
Conclusion
Analysts at International Investment note that the negative impact of geopolitical events combines with internal factors: flood and earthquake aftermaths, and conflict with Cambodia. Demand patterns are shifting, forcing Thailand to make complex decisions to remain competitive.
The strategy to refocus on tourists from Middle Eastern countries is logical from a per-visitor revenue perspective. However, even with growth, the volume from this region is unlikely to fully offset potential losses from European and Asian mass-market tourists in the short term, who are sensitive to airfare costs.