Warsaw Office Leasing Rises 38% as Supply Tightens

Warsaw's office market accelerated sharply in the second quarter of 2026, taking first-half leasing activity to about 420,000 sq m, 38% above the year-earlier level. Vacancy simultaneously fell to 8.5% citywide and 4.8% in central locations. The headline increase, however, should not be confused with a 38% expansion in occupied space: almost half of leasing volume consisted of renewals. The more consequential market shift is the combination of strong demand for modern buildings and an unusually limited development pipeline.

Warsaw Leasing Accelerates After a Slow Start

AXI IMMO recorded total Warsaw office take-up of 420,000 sq m in H1 2026, a 38% year-on-year increase, with net take-up at 220,000 sq m. Q2 was substantially stronger than the opening three months and leasing volume almost doubled compared with the same quarter of 2025. Business services, financial services and information technology companies were among the most active occupier groups. Major transactions included Frontex's 21,500 sq m renewal at Warsaw Spire B, Visa Europe's 17,300 sq m new lease at The Bridge and Poczta Polska's approximately 17,000 sq m renewal at Domaniewska Office Hub.

A separate market dataset puts first-half take-up at 416,600 sq m and Q2 alone at approximately 282,800 sq m. Renewals accounted for 48% of H1 leasing volume and new leases for 46%, with most of the remainder attributable to expansions. Around two-thirds of first-half leasing activity therefore took place in April through June.

The difference between 420,000 and 416,600 sq m is minor and reflects methodology and rounding rather than a conflicting market direction.

The 38% Increase Does Not Mean 38% More Occupied Space

Gross take-up includes companies renewing leases in buildings they already occupy.

The 38% headline should therefore not be interpreted as an equivalent increase in companies' physical office footprints. Renewals alone represented about 48% of H1 transaction volume, and the largest deal highlighted in the market data — Frontex's 21,500 sq m transaction — was a renewal.

That distinction is important for investors. Renewals do not create the same level of incremental space absorption as a new lease or expansion, but they reduce the volume of existing space likely to return to the market.

Warsaw Office Vacancy Falls to 8.5%

Citywide vacancy stood at 8.5% at the end of June, down 1 percentage point quarter on quarter and 2.3 percentage points year on year.

Vacancy in central locations fell to 4.8%, a 0.7 percentage-point quarterly decline and a 3 percentage-point annual decline. Outside the centre, availability remained considerably higher at 11.8%. Non-central vacancy had reached a recent peak of 13.3% in Q3 2025.

Around Rondo Daszyńskiego, one of Warsaw's main modern business clusters, availability was even lower at approximately 3.6%.

The citywide figure therefore conceals an increasingly segmented market. Modern central assets are becoming tight while substantially more space remains available in non-central and less competitive buildings.

Warsaw Office Stock Stands at About 6.24 Million Sq M

Modern office stock totalled almost 6.24 million sq m at the end of June. The overall inventory declined slightly from the previous quarter as older buildings continued to be withdrawn and repurposed.

CBRE recorded 45,200 sq m of new supply delivered in H1. The refurbishment of the 2,350 sq m Przemysłowa 26 building was completed during Q2, while approximately 130,000 sq m was under construction across five projects at the end of the quarter.

Another market estimate rounds H1 deliveries to 50,000 sq m, 47% lower year on year, and also puts the construction pipeline at about 130,000 sq m, down 7%. More than 90% of ongoing development is in central locations.

The difference between 45,200 and approximately 50,000 sq m is largely one of rounding and treatment of refurbished space. More importantly, new supply represents less than 1% of Warsaw's existing modern office stock.

Older Buildings Are Leaving the Office Market

Warsaw's supply constraints are not caused solely by a lack of new development.

Older buildings are increasingly being removed from the competitive office stock, refurbished or converted to residential, hospitality and other uses. That can cause total office inventory to remain flat or decline even while new projects are being completed.

The process also reinforces market polarisation. Buildings with weaker energy efficiency, ageing technical infrastructure or layouts less suited to contemporary workplace strategies face increasing pressure to invest in refurbishment.

As a result, Warsaw can simultaneously have available office space and a shortage of the specific high-quality accommodation sought by major occupiers.

Prime Warsaw Asking Rents Reach €32

Tight availability is supporting rent growth at the upper end of the market.

Asking rents in many central buildings range from approximately €15 to €28 per sq m per month, while the premium segment commands roughly €25–32.

The €32 level should be understood as an asking rent for selected top buildings, not as an average Warsaw office rent or necessarily the effective rent paid after negotiations. Rent-free periods, landlord contributions to fit-out, service charges and other incentives can materially change the occupier's final cost.

A separate prime-market benchmark places headline city-centre rents at €24–29 per sq m per month and non-central rents at €15–19.

The differing ranges reflect different definitions of building quality and market coverage rather than a direct contradiction.

Warsaw Prime Rents Outpace European Growth

Warsaw's best office space is recording rental growth well above the European average.

Prime Warsaw office rents increased by more than 8.5% year on year in Q2 2026. Across European prime central business district office markets, the corresponding average was 4.5%, with quarterly growth of 1.2%. Rental pressure in Warsaw remains concentrated in the best central buildings, while increases outside the centre are considerably weaker.

The figure therefore describes the prime segment and should not be applied to every Warsaw office property.

2027 Could Bring Exceptionally Low New Supply

The current construction pipeline is modest relative to Warsaw's more than 6 million sq m office market.

Market expectations point to exceptionally low deliveries in 2027, while a more meaningful revival in development is considered unlikely before 2028.

The shortage of projects reflects decisions taken several years ago, when developers were dealing with uncertainty over hybrid working, higher construction costs and more expensive financing.

The result is a lag between strengthening occupier activity and the delivery of new buildings.

If leasing remains healthy, the most acute shortage is likely to involve larger blocks of modern space in core locations rather than office accommodation of every type across Warsaw.

Warsaw Is Becoming a Two-Speed Office Market

Vacancy below 5% in central locations and close to 12% outside the centre creates very different conditions for landlords.

Owners of high-quality central buildings have greater ability to increase asking rents and reduce incentives. Less competitive properties may still require rent-free periods, landlord-funded fit-outs or substantial capital expenditure to retain occupiers.

Building age, energy efficiency, public transport access, technical systems, tenant quality and lease expiry profiles are therefore becoming more important than citywide market averages when evaluating office assets.

A rising Warsaw market does not imply equal performance for every office building.

Poland's Reference Rate Remains at 3.75%

The monetary backdrop remains relatively restrictive for new commercial development.

At its July 7–8 meeting, the National Bank of Poland kept its reference rate unchanged at 3.75%. Its July projection placed 2026 real GDP growth within a 3.0%–4.4% range with a 50% probability.

Poland's flash consumer-price estimate for July showed inflation accelerating to 3.0% year on year from 2.5% in June, with prices rising 0.8% month on month.

Financing costs therefore remain an important constraint on speculative office construction even as the economy continues to expand.

What the Leasing Surge Means for Warsaw

The 38% increase in take-up is only one element of the current cycle.

Equally important are central vacancy below 5%, a construction pipeline of only around 130,000 sq m and the high proportion of renewals in total leasing activity.

Renewals limit the case for interpreting headline take-up as pure corporate expansion, but they also prevent substantial blocks of existing space from returning to the market.

As International Investment experts report, describing Warsaw as universally short of office space would still be misleading because non-central vacancy remains close to 12%. The supply-demand imbalance is concentrated in modern, centrally located and technically competitive buildings. The 38% increase in leasing should also be treated cautiously because 48% of first-half volume consisted of renewals. For investors, the critical issue is the widening performance gap between prime and ageing stock. Limited development may continue supporting rents in the best assets through 2026–2027, while buildings with weaker energy performance, elevated vacancy or substantial capital-expenditure requirements could underperform even as the wider leasing market strengthens.

FAQ: Warsaw Office Market in 2026

How much did Warsaw office leasing increase?

First-half take-up increased by approximately 38% year on year to around 420,000 sq m.

How much office space was leased in Q2?

One major market dataset recorded approximately 282,800 sq m in Q2, representing roughly two-thirds of H1 activity.

Does 38% growth mean companies expanded their offices by 38%?

No. Total take-up includes lease renewals, which accounted for approximately 48% of first-half volume.

What is Warsaw's office vacancy rate?

The citywide vacancy rate is 8.5%. Central locations are considerably tighter at 4.8%, compared with approximately 11.8% outside the centre.

How large is Warsaw's office market?

Modern office stock totals approximately 6.24 million sq m.

How much new office space was delivered in H1 2026?

One major dataset recorded 45,200 sq m of deliveries. Another rounds the figure to approximately 50,000 sq m.

How much office space is under construction?

Around 130,000 sq m was under development across five principal projects at mid-year.

How much does prime Warsaw office space cost?

Headline rents for prime central space are approximately €24–29 per sq m per month, while asking rents in selected premium buildings can reach €32.

Why are Warsaw office rents rising?

The main factors are low prime vacancy, limited new development and occupier demand concentrated on modern buildings in central locations.

Could Warsaw face an office shortage?

A shortage of high-quality central space could intensify as the pipeline remains limited. A citywide shortage of every type of office space is not currently supported by vacancy data.