ETIAS Reshapes Schengen Access

Photo: ETIAS

The European Union is preparing to introduce ETIAS, a new travel authorization system that could significantly alter how visa-free travel to the Schengen Area works for citizenship-by-investment passport holders. As early as 2026, access for this group may become more conditional and less predictable, even without a formal suspension of visa-free status.

A new screening layer for visa-free travel

The European Travel Information and Authorization System is expected to become mandatory by late 2026. Travelers from 59 visa-exempt countries, including Caribbean states offering CBI programs, will be required to submit an online application before visiting 30 European countries for short stays. The authorization will cost €20 and remain valid for up to three years or until the passport expires.

According to the European Commission, most applications will be processed within minutes, though some may take up to 30 days, particularly if additional documentation or an interview is requested. Even with an approved ETIAS, entry is not guaranteed, as border authorities retain the right to refuse admission.

Concerns over selective enforcement

While the EU frames ETIAS as a security measure, concerns are growing within the investment migration industry. IMI’s 2025 Executive Survey found that roughly one-third of industry executives believe the system could be used to selectively restrict CBI passport holders without formally revoking visa-free access.

This approach would allow Brussels to avoid diplomatic fallout while effectively introducing differentiated access among citizens of the same country, based on how citizenship was acquired.

Low confidence in Caribbean compliance

Confidence in the long-term stability of Caribbean CBI programs remains fragile. Only 50% of surveyed executives believe that the five Caribbean CBI countries will fully enforce the 30-day residency requirement agreed with the EU in 2023. This skepticism persists despite repeated assurances from regional authorities.

The EU’s permanent suspension of Vanuatu’s visa-free access in November 2024, even after reforms were implemented, has further undermined trust that compliance alone can prevent adverse outcomes.

From spontaneity to algorithmic uncertainty

ETIAS marks a shift away from spontaneous travel. A Caribbean CBI passport once allowed holders to travel to Europe on short notice. Under the new system, travelers must apply in advance, pay a fee, and wait for approval that may take anywhere from minutes to weeks.

For investors from countries requiring EU visas, this introduces a new risk. They may complete the costly citizenship process without knowing whether their ETIAS application will ultimately be approved.

Golden visas gain renewed appeal

As uncertainty around CBI passports grows, EU-based residency programs are gaining traction. Portugal’s Golden Visa, while requiring a higher investment, grants actual residency rights that are not subject to ETIAS screening. This provides greater certainty for investors whose primary objective is reliable access to Europe.

An industry in recalibration

Despite rising risks, the investment migration market is not retreating. Seventy-five percent of respondents expect at least one new CBI program to launch within the next year. However, expansion strategies are shifting, with growing interest in North America and declining focus on Africa.

As reported by International Investment experts, ETIAS represents a structural shift from nominal visa-free travel toward conditional, data-driven access, particularly affecting CBI passport holders. The added screening layer reduces certainty and elevates the strategic value of EU residency pathways for investors prioritizing long-term mobility stability.