UK Migration Declines Sharply: What the Numbers Reveal

Net migration to the UK dropped by almost two-thirds in the year to June 2025. According to the ONS, the difference between arrivals and departures fell to 204,000 from 649,000 a year earlier. The decline was driven largely by fewer people arriving on work and study visas, combined with shifts in migration trends during the first year of the Labour government.

At the same time, Home Office data shows a contrasting development: asylum applications hit a record 110,051 in the year to September 2025. While overall migration is falling, pressure on the asylum system continues to mount, reflecting wider geopolitical instability.

Asylum Decisions and Strain on the System

Initial decisions on asylum claims reached 133,502 over the year, with 45% granted. Despite historically high processing volumes and a 36% fall in the backlog of initial cases, the number of people housed in hotels rose to 36,000 in September — a 2% increase year-on-year.

Hotel accommodation remains a major political flashpoint. The government has pledged to end the use of asylum hotels by the end of the current Parliament, shifting people to military bases instead. However, ongoing legal disputes — including the recent High Court challenge in Epping Forest — complicate implementation.

Rising Small Boat Crossings and New Challenges

Small-boat arrivals across the Channel increased by 53% over the 12 months to September 2025, reaching 45,659 — nearly matching the 2022 peak. The rise reflects a growing number of passengers per vessel. Among those arriving were 5,151 children, including 2,700 accompanied minors.

Government officials acknowledge that the number of crossings remains “far too high.” Efforts to return individuals under the “one in, one out” pilot scheme remain limited: 153 people have been removed to France, while 134 were transferred to the UK.

Political Responses and Policy Shifts

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has pledged further reforms to ensure that migrants “contribute more than they take out,” referencing changes to the path to settled status and amendments to the application of Article 8 ECHR in immigration cases. Migration experts note that the current drop reflects earlier Conservative measures, including the June 2024 salary threshold increase.

Researchers emphasise that due to the definition of a long-term international migrant — someone relocating for at least a year — the full impact of reforms takes at least 12 months to appear in official statistics.

The UK’s steep decline in net migration reflects strict policy adjustments and economic pressures. Yet globally the trend is far from uniform. Georgia continues to show strong expansion in tourism and a growing economic contribution from the sector, driven by competitive pricing, improved connectivity, and sustained investor interest in hospitality and real estate.