Lisney Property Market Outlook: Irish Property Market Poised for Steady Growth in 2026

Ireland’s property market is expected to remain resilient in 2026, with steady price growth across most sectors and a recovery in investment volumes, according to the Lisney Property Market Outlook 2026. However, chronic supply shortages are set to remain the dominant force shaping activity.

Residential Prices to Moderate but Continue Rising

Lisney forecasts national house price growth of around 5% in 2026, easing from 7% in 2025 and 11% in 2024. Buyer demand is expected to remain solid but more price-sensitive as affordability constraints intensify in certain brackets.

Turnkey homes with strong energy efficiency ratings, particularly A and B BER properties, are projected to outperform. Coastal locations, established suburbs and areas within strong school catchments are likely to lead price performance.

Housing completions in 2025 are estimated at approximately 32,000 units, well below the 50,000–60,000 homes per year considered necessary to meet demand. With population growth of about 1.5% annually, supply pressures are expected to persist. The introduction of bridging finance by a pillar bank may improve liquidity by facilitating right-sizing transactions.

The rental market is forecast to remain exceptionally tight, with demand outstripping supply across major cities and a gap of up to 20% between rents on new and existing tenancies.

Development and Construction Constraints

Activity in development land is expected to improve modestly in 2026, supported by policy clarity and planning reforms. Annual turnover in the Greater Dublin Area has averaged around €500 million, with demand strongest for ready-to-develop residential sites.

Construction activity, however, remains below required levels. Commencement notices declined sharply in 2025 after the expiry of temporary contribution waivers. Although planning permissions have improved, high-density apartment projects continue to face viability challenges, despite the reduction of VAT on new apartments to 9% under Budget 2026.

Investment Volumes Set to Rebound

After two consecutive years of approximately €2.5 billion in annual turnover, commercial investment volumes are forecast to exceed €3.25 billion in 2026, potentially reaching €3.75 billion in stable external conditions.

International investors are expected to dominate larger transactions, while domestic private investors remain active in smaller deals. ESG performance is increasingly central to asset pricing and liquidity. Yield compression is anticipated in several sectors, particularly offices, where prime yields tightened by around 35 basis points in 2025.

Offices, Retail and Industrial Markets

Office take-up returned to its long-term average of about 240,000 sq m in 2025. Although Dublin’s vacancy rate stands at roughly 14%, prime city centre Grade A+ space may become scarce by mid-2026, supporting rental growth and refurbishment of secondary stock.

Retail property activity remains strong, supported by limited prime supply. The reinstatement of the reduced 9% VAT rate for hospitality from July 2026 is expected to support operators, although cost inflation remains a challenge.

Industrial and logistics demand continues to exceed supply. Vacancy rates have hovered around 2% since 2022, with only about 110,000 sq m under construction nationwide, reinforcing upward rental pressure.

Living Sectors Driven by Demographics

Long-term demographic trends continue to underpin demand across living sectors, including nursing homes, student accommodation and hotels. Ireland’s population aged over 80 has risen by 41% over the past decade and is projected to grow by a further 60% by 2035, with an estimated shortfall of more than 10,000 nursing home beds.

Student accommodation demand remains strong, with international students accounting for over 15% of enrolments. Delivery delays and regulatory constraints are expected to sustain pressure in the sector.

As experts from International Investment report, Ireland’s property market in 2026 will remain fundamentally supply-driven, rewarding long-term strategies focused on asset quality, sustainability and disciplined capital allocation.