Temporary Protection for Ukrainian Refugees: Stricter Rules and Record-Low New Decisions in 2025

As of March 31, 2025, over 4.26 million Ukrainians were under the EU’s temporary protection mechanism, according to Eurostat. This marked a decrease of 45,455 people (-1.1%) compared to February. Experts link this to re-registration issues and tightening of accommodation and support policies.

Key Statistics and Trends

The majority of refugees remain concentrated in Germany (1,184,890) and Poland (997,120) — accounting for 27.8% and 23.4% of the EU total, respectively. Czechia follows with 365,055 (8.6%).

Czechia saw the biggest drop in absolute terms: -32,695 (-8.2%)

Sweden recorded the largest relative decline: -43.2% (-20,505)

Lithuania: -4,845 (-9.9%)

Meanwhile, 18 EU countries registered an increase, led by:

Germany (+7,090)

Poland (+2,330)

Spain (+2,275)

Demographic Breakdown

98.4% of recipients are Ukrainian citizens

44.7% are adult women (most aged 35–64)

23.6% are men

31.7% are minors (16.7% boys, 15% girls)

Temporary Protection Per Capita

Czechia: 33.5 per 1,000 residents

Poland: 27.2

Latvia: 26.4

EU average: 9.5

The EU extended temporary protection until March 4, 2026. Yet, only 136,780 new decisions were issued in Q1 2025 — the lowest quarterly figure since February 2022 (down 20.5% from Q4 2024).

Major declines in:

Germany: -13,220

Poland: -8,580

Czechia: -3,465

Some countries saw modest increases:
Italy (+1,095), Lithuania (+545), Cyprus (+445)

In March alone:

44,335 new decisions (+7% vs. February)

Top increases: Italy (+1,275), Bulgaria (+680), Poland (+650)

Largest declines: Cyprus (-440), Denmark (-405), Belgium (-290)

Among non-Ukrainians receiving temporary protection:

Russians: 12,471

Nigerians: 4,972

Azerbaijanis: 4,284

Unaccompanied Minors

Since 2022, the top countries offering protection to unaccompanied Ukrainian children:

Austria: 2,600

Netherlands: 1,860

Lithuania: 1,730

Relative share of unaccompanied minors:

Croatia: 13.7%

Denmark: 7.6%

Austria: 6.2%

Policy Changes in 2025

Germany: Ukrainians arriving after April 1 no longer qualify for Bürgergeld (€563/month). They now receive Asylum Seekers Allowance (€441).

Austria: Offers permanent residency via the Red-White-Red Card Plus to refugees with 1+ year of work, A1-level German, and a stable job.

Belgium (Flanders): Ended its private housing subsidy on Jan 1, 2025. Municipalities may receive €1,000 per registered refugee if housing was formalized before 2025.

Estonia: One-time rental subsidy (€1,200/household), relocation aid (up to €3,200/family), and child support (€650/month for large families).

Spain: Continues to provide €400/adult and €100/child monthly for six months if no income is available.

Ireland: Cuts hosting payments from €800 to €600/month from June 2025; base refugee benefit reduced to €38.80/week.

Norway: Cuts child benefits, limits travel to Ukraine, and reduces hotel-based housing. Welfare access depends on residence duration.

Slovakia: Reduces shelter stay from 120 to 60 days for arrivals after Feb 28. Aid limited to 2 months (exceptions for children, seniors, single parents).

France: Cut emergency shelter spots from 19,500 to 4,000. Rental programs face funding gaps; some families have received eviction notices.

UK and U.S. Measures

The UK’s Homes for Ukraine scheme continues: £350/month for hosts and a £200 one-time payment for newcomers.
But The Guardian notes issues with visa renewal delays, affecting housing and employment.

In the U.S., The Washington Post reports that former President Donald Trump proposed reallocating up to $250 million from humanitarian aid to fund voluntary return programs for up to 700,000 migrants from Ukraine, Haiti, Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen.
The plan faces criticism from rights groups and the International Organization for Migration, which opposes returns to unsafe regions.

Conclusion

The sharp decline in new protection decisions and the tightening of national aid programs point to a transition from open-door policy to managed containment. Although protection was formally extended, financial and housing support is being reduced or localized.

A growing disparity is emerging: while some countries maintain generous integration policies, others shift the burden to municipalities or phase out support. Outside the EU, there’s a clear trend toward shrinking humanitarian programs.

Ukrainian refugees are increasingly expected to integrate quickly and become self-sufficient — often under more restrictive conditions.