Poland’s Central Bank Holds Rates Amid Accelerating Economic Growth

NBP Decision: Rate Stability with Economic Momentum

At its first monetary policy meeting of 2026, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) decided to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at 4 %, pausing the easing cycle that saw cumulative cuts of 175 basis points in 2025. This decision comes as annual inflation dropped to 2.4 % in December 2025, slightly below the NBP’s target range of 2.5 % ± 1 %, but questions remain about the sustainability of this trend.

The rate hold reflects the central bank’s recognition that despite disinflationary pressures, economic growth in Poland continues to show resilience, supported by strong private consumption, investment, and demand factors. According to European economic forecasts, Poland’s GDP is expected to grow around 3.5 % in 2026, placing it among the faster-growing advanced European economies.

Monetary Policy Balancing Act

The NBP’s decision embodies a cautious and balanced monetary policy stance. On one hand, the easing inflation trend gives room for flexibility, but on the other hand, the central bank chooses to maintain the current rate until it gains more clarity on whether disinflation is structurally entrenched. This careful approach aims to support price stability without stifling economic momentum or introducing volatility into financial markets.

Market participants are watching key indicators such as wage growth, employment trends, and incoming inflation data, as these will heavily influence future decisions on whether to ease or tighten monetary policy further.

Outlook from Economists and Markets

Analysts highlight that the NBP’s rate hold underscores its commitment to data-dependent policy making in an uncertain global economic environment. While inflation has eased, it remains crucial for the central bank to confirm consistent disinflation before embarking on additional rate cuts.

As International Investment experts report: Poland’s central bank decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects a prudent stance amidst accelerating economic growth and disinflationary signs. For long-term economic stability, monetary policy continuity based on data-driven assessments of price trends and economic output will be critical in shaping investor confidence and sustaining growth.

Подсказки: Poland central bank, interest rate, economy Poland, inflation, GDP growth, monetary policy