Kraków and Warsaw Lagged in Long-Term Home Price Growth

Asking prices increased across all major Polish housing markets over the past two decades, but the smallest percentage gains were recorded in Olsztyn for newly built apartments and Kraków for existing homes. Warsaw, Wrocław and Gdynia also ranked near the bottom. Their slower percentage growth did not make them inexpensive, as several of these cities had already been Poland’s costliest housing markets in 2006.

Polish Housing Prices Rose Across All Major Cities

The comparison covers the period from the third quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2026 and is based on the BaRN residential property database maintained by the National Bank of Poland.

The dataset covers the capitals of Poland’s 16 voivodeships as well as Gdynia. It records nominal asking prices for apartments in multi-family developments, expressed in Polish zlotys per square metre. Primary-market prices include value-added tax.

The figures do not represent inflation-adjusted investment returns. They exclude maintenance, renovation, taxation, mortgage interest and transaction expenses, while final sale prices may differ from sellers’ initial asking prices.

Olsztyn Recorded the Slowest New-Build Price Growth

Olsztyn posted the smallest percentage increase on Poland’s primary housing market. Its average asking price rose from PLN 4,000 per square metre in the third quarter of 2006 to PLN 10,544.57 in the first quarter of 2026.

The cumulative increase reached 163.6%, equivalent to an average nominal annual growth rate of roughly 5.1%.

Kraków ranked second, with new-home prices rising from PLN 6,021 to PLN 16,859.05 per square metre, an increase of 180%. Poznań followed with growth of 188.9%, from PLN 4,769.93 to PLN 13,778.05.

Prices increased by 203.2% in Gdynia, 207.4% in Warsaw, 216.8% in Katowice, 225.1% in Wrocław and 228.4% in Gdańsk.

Białystok recorded the strongest primary-market growth. Average asking prices climbed from PLN 2,727 to PLN 12,178.85 per square metre, an increase of 346.6%. The difference between Białystok and Olsztyn was 183 percentage points.

Much of the gap reflects starting values. Kraków, Warsaw, Gdańsk, Gdynia and Wrocław were already among the most expensive markets in 2006. A similar nominal increase in zlotys therefore produced a smaller percentage gain than in cities where housing had initially been cheaper.

Kraków Had the Weakest Existing-Home Growth

Kraków recorded the slowest increase on the secondary market. Its average asking price rose from PLN 7,114 per square metre in 2006 to PLN 16,566.48 in early 2026.

The cumulative gain was 132.9%, equivalent to average nominal annual growth of approximately 4.4%.

Gdynia followed with a 149.1% increase. Existing-home prices rose by 157.5% in Wrocław and by 163.5% in Warsaw.

Warsaw nevertheless recorded one of the largest increases in absolute terms. Its average price rose from PLN 7,179 to PLN 18,919.02 per square metre, adding more than PLN 11,740. By the first quarter of 2026, Warsaw remained the most expensive secondary market in the database.

Olsztyn, which ranked last for new-build growth, posted a stronger 189.9% increase in existing-home asking prices, from PLN 3,414.43 to PLN 9,898.40 per square metre.

Zielona Góra recorded the highest secondary-market increase, with prices rising by approximately 324.5%, from PLN 2,136.75 to PLN 9,071.20 per square metre.

Slower Growth Does Not Mean Cheaper Housing

Kraków, Warsaw, Wrocław and Gdynia ranked near the bottom largely because their housing was already expensive at the beginning of the period.

Kraków provides the clearest example. The average secondary-market asking price increased by more than PLN 9,452 per square metre, yet the percentage gain was the smallest among the 17 cities.

Olsztyn is an exception to the high-base pattern. It was not among the most expensive markets in 2006, but it still recorded the weakest new-build growth. Price data alone cannot establish the reason. Local construction activity, population trends, incomes, migration and the balance between supply and demand may all have contributed.

The ranking should therefore not be treated as a direct measure of investment quality. A low percentage increase can result from a high starting price, weaker demand, limited liquidity or several factors operating simultaneously.

Poland’s Housing Market Slowed in 2026

The long-term trend remains positive, but current conditions differ from periods of rapid price appreciation. The National Bank of Poland described prices in the country’s principal urban markets as broadly stable during the first quarter of 2026. Demand remained subdued, while developers continued to hold a large inventory of unsold apartments.

A broader transaction-based measure still showed growth. Poland’s House Price Index increased by 5.9% year over year and by 2.3% from the previous quarter in the first quarter of 2026. The average annual increase across the European Union was 5.1%.

Housing construction data showed a mixed supply picture. Poland completed 76,200 dwellings between January and May 2026, 0.5% fewer than during the same period in 2025. Housing starts declined by 0.2%, while the number of dwellings covered by permits or registered construction projects increased by 16.3%. A rise in permits may expand the future development pipeline, but it does not mean that every authorised project will immediately reach the market.

As International Investment experts report, the ranking primarily demonstrates the effect of high starting prices rather than a simple division between successful and underperforming markets. Kraków and Warsaw produced relatively modest percentage gains while retaining some of Poland’s highest housing prices and recording substantial increases in zlotys per square metre. Investors need to examine transaction prices, rental yields, liquidity, local supply, demographics, financing costs and accumulated inflation. A two-decade nominal increase cannot by itself predict future property returns.

FAQ

Which Polish city recorded the slowest new-build price growth?

Olsztyn had the smallest primary-market increase. Average asking prices rose by 163.6%, from PLN 4,000 per square metre in the third quarter of 2006 to PLN 10,544.57 in the first quarter of 2026.

Where did existing-home prices grow the least?

Kraków recorded the smallest secondary-market increase. Prices rose by 132.9%, from PLN 7,114 to PLN 16,566.48 per square metre.

Why did Warsaw and Kraków rank near the bottom?

Both cities already had some of Poland’s highest housing prices in 2006. A high starting value reduces the percentage increase even when the absolute rise in zlotys is substantial.

Does slower growth mean housing is inexpensive?

No. Warsaw and Kraków remained among Poland’s most expensive residential markets in the first quarter of 2026. The ranking measures percentage change, not affordability.

Are the figures adjusted for inflation?

No. They are nominal asking prices. A real-return assessment would need to account for inflation, ownership expenses, financing and transaction costs.

What is the difference between asking and transaction prices?

An asking price is the amount advertised by a seller or developer. The final transaction price may be lower following negotiations, discounts or other sales conditions.

Are Polish housing prices still rising in 2026?

The nationwide House Price Index continues to show annual growth, but urban-market data indicate weaker demand, broadly stable asking prices and a substantial inventory of unsold new homes.