EMEA Data Centres Are Running Short of Capacity
Demand is outpacing new supply across the EMEA data centre market
The EMEA data centre market entered 2026 in a state of structural undersupply, with demand for capacity rising faster than new projects can be delivered. In its year-end 2025 report, JLL says the region has reached a pivotal moment shaped by unprecedented demand, rapid AI adoption and a broader geographical rebalancing of new development. The firm’s central conclusion is clear: capacity is being absorbed faster than it can be replaced, turning access to power and space into the defining issue for operators, cloud platforms and enterprise occupiers.
That tension is especially visible in Europe’s FLAP-D markets — Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris and Dublin. JLL says combined live capacity across those five markets rose from 1.8 GW in 2019 to 3.6 GW in 2025, effectively doubling in six years. Yet even that expansion has not kept pace with new demand because mature markets are being constrained by grid limitations, regulatory friction and the scarcity of sites with viable power access.
FLAP-D vacancy has fallen to a record low
The sharpest signal in the report is vacancy. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the weighted average colocation vacancy rate across FLAP-D fell to a record low of 6.3%, down from a peak of 16.9% in 2021. At the same time, 83% of the development pipeline was already pre-let. That changes how occupiers have to approach the market. Instead of relying on delivered inventory, large users increasingly need to secure future capacity well in advance through pre-commitments and early-stage deals.
JLL notes that finding contiguous space of 10 MW or more has become increasingly difficult. As a result, large occupiers are focusing less on current availability and more on future delivery schedules. London currently leads the pipeline with 302 MW under development, followed by Frankfurt with 279 MW, but even those numbers are not seen as sufficient slack because demand is absorbing new stock before it reaches the market.
Artificial intelligence is reshaping where capacity is needed
JLL links the new phase of market expansion directly to AI. The report says artificial intelligence could account for as much as half of all data centre workloads by 2030. It also says neocloud signings for AI-related capacity in Europe almost tripled in 2025. By late 2026, inference is expected to overtake training, a shift that matters because it can push demand beyond the largest clusters and into a wider set of markets.
That marks an important shift for the EMEA development map. Traditional hyperscale concentration previously strengthened only the largest hubs, but AI workloads are now creating conditions for a broader distribution of capital, infrastructure and land acquisitions. JLL expects more than half of future AI-driven growth to land in Tier 2 and emerging markets, including the Nordics. In other words, proximity to established core hubs is no longer the only deciding factor in winning new data centre investment.
Powered land scarcity is changing the economics of site selection
A major section of the report focuses on the cost of powered land, meaning sites that can realistically be connected to the level of electricity demand a data centre requires. JLL says the price gap between primary and secondary European markets continues to widen. On average, primary markets carry a 1.7x premium over secondary markets and a 3.1x premium over tertiary locations. In some countries, including the UK, that internal spread reaches as high as 8.8x.
The issue is not only land pricing. The spread is becoming structural because of infrastructure constraints, rising site values and connection lead times that can stretch to ten years in established hubs. That means site selection increasingly depends not just on latency, connectivity and customer proximity, but on whether power can be secured within a commercially viable timeframe. For investors and developers, powered land is becoming one of the most strategic and supply-constrained assets in the EMEA data centre sector.
The Middle East is entering a new growth phase
If Europe’s main story is scarcity, the Middle East’s story is acceleration. JLL says nine metro markets in the region now account for 1 GW of live capacity, while 2.2 GW is under construction and another 12 GW is in planning. That means the current construction pipeline is already more than double the region’s existing operational base. The firm also forecasts that total data centre capacity across the Middle East could quadruple over the next five years, driven by AI adoption, cloud demand and large-scale sovereign investment.
The UAE remains the region’s most established market, with Abu Dhabi and Dubai accounting for 602 MW of total capacity. But Saudi Arabia is closing the gap quickly. Riyadh alone has 1.4 GW under construction and a further 5.2 GW planned. That points to a regional shift from isolated national growth stories toward a more competitive race to become the Middle East’s leading digital infrastructure platform.
European constraints are raising the importance of secondary markets
JLL is effectively describing a new market map in which secondary and regional locations are no longer fallback options but central growth channels. In Europe’s established hubs, power and land constraints remain severe even where regulatory barriers have started to ease. In Ireland, for example, the Commission for Regulation of Utilities lifted its moratorium in December 2025, but only on the condition that any new data centre seeking a grid connection must install onsite generation or battery systems capable of covering full electricity demand. That shows that even reopened markets are now operating under stricter energy requirements.
Against that backdrop, Frankfurt and London have become the main beneficiaries of constrained supply elsewhere. But even those hubs cannot absorb displaced demand indefinitely. That is why capital is increasingly looking toward the Nordics, Tier 2 markets and new regional destinations where connection speed, land economics and scalability still align.
What it means for investors and occupiers
The practical takeaway from the JLL report is stark. EMEA data centres no longer look like a segment where occupiers can calmly choose between existing stock and future deliveries. The market is moving toward a model in which access to capacity depends increasingly on timing, power strategy and pre-leasing discipline. That raises the value of land banking, long-term utility relationships, early-stage development partnerships and power-secure sites that can be moved through planning and infrastructure preparation quickly.
As International Investment experts report, JLL’s findings suggest that the next phase of EMEA data centre growth will be constrained less by building shells than by electricity access, connection timelines and the ability to bring usable capacity to market fast enough. For Europe, that means secondary markets will keep gaining importance and occupiers will need longer planning horizons. For the Middle East, it means a faster shift from emerging market status to large-scale digital infrastructure platform. And for investors, it reinforces the appeal of powered land, energy-backed sites, digital logistics corridors and real assets positioned to benefit from the AI-driven demand cycle.
FAQ
What does FLAP-D mean in the data centre market?
It refers to Europe’s five largest colocation markets: Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris and Dublin. JLL uses them as the core benchmark for mature European data centre dynamics.
How low has vacancy fallen in FLAP-D?
It reached a record low of 6.3% in Q4 2025, while 83% of the development pipeline was already pre-let.
Why is AI having such a strong impact on the EMEA data centre market?
Because JLL expects AI to account for up to half of all data centre workloads by 2030, while neocloud signings for AI capacity in Europe almost tripled in 2025.
What is happening in the Middle East data centre market?
The region is scaling rapidly, with 1 GW of live capacity, 2.2 GW under construction and a further 12 GW planned across nine metro markets.
Why are secondary European markets becoming more attractive?
Because powered land in primary markets is much more expensive, connection lead times can reach ten years, and average price premiums versus secondary markets have widened to 1.7x.