US earnings season opens under a growing risk cloud

Oil, inflation and geopolitics return to the market’s center

The US earnings season began on April 13, 2026, with investors facing a more fragile backdrop than they had just days earlier. Before the opening bell on Monday, US stock-index futures were lower while oil surged after talks between the United States and Iran broke down and fresh threats emerged around the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway critical to global crude shipments. Barron’s reported that Dow futures were down 0.5%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.7%, while Brent rose to $101.75 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate climbed to $103.67. MarketWatch and Investopedia also reported crude moving back above $100 and risk appetite fading at the start of the week.

That left investors entering one of the most important stretches of the quarter with a split narrative. On one side, analysts still expect a solid earnings season. On the other, management teams now have to explain how they plan to navigate higher energy prices, sticky inflation and renewed geopolitical instability. Bloomberg had written on April 9 that stronger earnings expectations were helping revive demand for equities after the prior selloff, but by April 13 the focus had shifted toward the risk that companies could deliver good first-quarter numbers while sounding more cautious about the months ahead.

S&P 500 earnings season 2026 begins with strong forecasts

At the aggregate level, profit expectations remain firm. FactSet says the estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in the first quarter of 2026 is 13.2%. If realized, that would mark the sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index. Nine of the eleven sectors are projected to post earnings growth, led by information technology, materials and financials.

Some market estimates are even more optimistic. MarketWatch reported on April 13 that analysts now expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 19% for full-year 2026, up from 15.5% projected in January. But the same report stressed that the market will focus as much on corporate guidance as on backward-looking first-quarter results. Investors want to hear what companies are seeing in costs, demand, margin pressure and consumer behavior as energy markets become volatile again.

Why oil and Iran are back at the center of Wall Street risk

The biggest external risk at the start of the week was crude oil. As tensions around Iran intensified and the possibility of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz returned to the market narrative, investors began repricing the inflation outlook. That matters directly for equities because higher energy prices feed through transportation, logistics and industrial input costs before reaching consumers and squeezing corporate margins. Associated Press reported last week that JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon warned the Iran war could reignite inflation and keep the Federal Reserve holding rates higher for longer.

That concern comes on top of already elevated inflation data. MarketWatch said the US consumer price index rose 0.9% in March and 3.3% from a year earlier, and a renewed oil spike is adding to doubts that the Federal Reserve will be able to move quickly toward lower rates. For equities, that creates a two-layer problem: higher business costs and a tougher monetary backdrop at the same time.

Big banks open earnings season on an uneasy market tape

The first major reports come from the banking sector, starting with Goldman Sachs and followed by JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Barron’s said bank earnings are setting the tone for the early phase of the season because they offer a fast read on capital-markets activity, credit demand, fee pools and balance-sheet quality. Investopedia also identified financials as the focal point of the week.

Goldman Sachs delivered strong headline numbers, but even that was not enough to reassure investors. MarketWatch reported that first-quarter revenue rose 14.4% from a year earlier to $17.23 billion, while earnings per share reached $17.55, both ahead of consensus estimates. Investment-banking fees jumped 48%, and equity-trading revenue rose 27% to $5.33 billion. At the same time, revenue from fixed income, currencies and commodities fell 10%, while provisions for credit losses climbed nearly 10% to $315 million. Even with the earnings beat, Goldman shares were down about 4% in premarket trading, a sign that expectations had already been pushed very high into the print.

Why US stocks may struggle to satisfy elevated expectations

The challenge for this reporting season is that companies are not entering it against a low bar. Bloomberg and MarketWatch both indicate that analysts had been lifting profit estimates in recent weeks and that equities had already stabilized from the late first-quarter turbulence. That means even strong earnings may not be enough if executives sound cautious on oil, tariffs, inflation, consumer demand or capital spending.

There is also a concentration issue inside the index. FactSet expects much of the earnings support to come again from technology and financials rather than from all corners of the market. Barron’s likewise said Big Tech and banks are expected to lead the season, which leaves the broader market vulnerable if a small group of heavyweight companies disappoints or trims guidance.

What will drive the S&P 500 in the days ahead

Over the coming days, the market is likely to focus on three sets of signals. The first is oil and the geopolitical path around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The second is whether energy costs begin to alter the inflation outlook and Federal Reserve expectations. The third is whether companies keep their existing outlooks for sales, margins and investment spending intact. That is why a strong start to earnings season does not automatically guarantee a durable rebound in the S&P 500. Barron’s, MarketWatch and Investors.com all point to this week as a serious test of the market’s April recovery attempt.

As International Investment experts report, the US earnings season is opening with solid profit momentum but weak confidence: earnings are still supporting valuations, yet another jump in oil, persistent inflation pressure and cautious management commentary could quickly shift the market back from optimism to defense.

FAQ

Why is the US earnings season important for stocks?
Because investors receive not only actual profit data but also updated management guidance on demand, costs, margins and investment plans, all of which affect valuations across the S&P 500.

What earnings growth is expected for the S&P 500 in Q1 2026?
FactSet estimates year-over-year earnings growth of 13.2% for the first quarter of 2026.

Why is higher oil a problem for US equities?
Because it raises operating costs, adds to inflation pressure and can keep Federal Reserve interest rates higher for longer.

Which companies are opening the April 2026 earnings season?
Among the first are Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, with Netflix, ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor also due later in the week.

Why did Goldman Sachs stock fall despite beating estimates?
Because investor expectations were already very high, especially for trading performance, and the beat was not seen as strong enough relative to the market’s positioning.

What matters more right now: earnings or geopolitics?
Both matter, but by mid-April 2026 geopolitics and oil had re-emerged as the key external risks capable of reshaping how investors interpret even strong corporate results.