Up to 90,000 roles could shift out of London

Bloomberg's Aug. 12 report highlights an acceleration of a long-running UK trend: banks, law firms, accounting groups, technology businesses and other employers are increasingly locating some professional functions outside the capital.

The headline projection comes from Robert Walters. Its model suggests as many as 90,000 roles could be relocated from London over around five years.

Up to 12,000 could have shifted by the end of 2027, rising to about 45,000 by 2029 and as many as 90,000 around 2031.

The full figure would be equivalent to roughly 2.5% of London's workforce. The projected initial benefit to regional economies is around £9 billion, potentially rising to £15 billion once employee spending and additional local supply-chain activity are included.

North West England could gain 22,500 roles, the Midlands as many as 18,000 and Yorkshire around 13,500.

Those figures are forecasts rather than confirmed relocations.

Ninety thousand jobs do not mean 90,000 workers moving home

This is the most important qualification.

When a bank relocates a function from London to Manchester, the role can move without the existing employee moving with it.

Regional positions may instead be filled by people who already live locally.

The projection also expects senior leadership to remain disproportionately concentrated in London while companies expand more junior ranks in regional offices.

The correct interpretation is therefore a geographical redistribution of jobs and corporate functions, not a forecast that tens of thousands of London residents will all relocate.

Manchester has an established professional-services market

North West England is already a significant location for shared services, technology and professional functions.

Manchester has large universities, an established financial and digital talent market, an international airport and a sizeable city-centre business district.

Recruitment activity includes capital markets, insurance, financial technology, corporate finance, treasury, operations and risk and compliance.

However, the projected 22,500 roles are for North West England as a whole, not Manchester alone. Liverpool and other locations also form part of the regional forecast, while Birmingham, Leeds, Edinburgh and Glasgow compete for many of the same corporate functions.

London prime offices cost almost twice Manchester levels

Commercial property provides one of the clearest financial incentives.

Prime City of London rents reached £95 per square foot in the second quarter of 2026, up 12% year on year.

In Mayfair and St James's, prime rents reached £200, an 18% annual increase.

Manchester stood at £48 per square foot and Birmingham at £52.

Manchester prime offices are therefore roughly half the City rate and less than one-quarter of the highest Mayfair and St James's level.

The gap is narrowing, however. CBRE expects double-digit prime-rental growth in both Manchester and Birmingham over 2026 as shortages of high-quality office space persist.

Limited office supply could become Manchester's constraint

Relocation success can create its own cost problem.

If employers build regional teams faster than developers deliver high-quality offices, rents will continue to rise.

UK regional office activity softened in the second quarter, but newly completed availability also declined, while part of the future development pipeline is already pre-let or under offer.

Manchester therefore needs additional modern supply if it is to preserve the cost advantage that helps attract corporate functions from London.

Manchester housing remains significantly cheaper

Housing reinforces the regional cost case.

The average private rent in Manchester was £1,358 a month in June 2026, 3.5% higher than a year earlier.

The city's average home price was £247,000 in May and was broadly unchanged year on year. First-time buyers paid an average £232,000.

The latest house-price figures remain provisional and can be revised.

For employees, lower housing costs can compensate for some of the difference between London and regional salaries.

London rents remain above £2,300 a month

Average London private rent reached £2,302 a month in June 2026, the highest of any English region, although annual rental inflation had slowed to 2.2%.

London house prices were simultaneously falling. Average prices were 3.7% lower year on year in May, marking a ninth consecutive month of annual decline.

The fall was concentrated in Inner London, where prices dropped 5.9%, compared with only 0.3% in Outer London.

The capital's competitive disadvantage is therefore not simply rapid house-price inflation. Its absolute housing and rental costs remain much higher than those of regional centres.

Burnham has established a government base in Manchester

Political decentralisation accelerated after Andy Burnham entered Downing Street.

No10 North opened in central Manchester on July 23, with Burnham becoming the first prime minister to work from the new operation at Heron House.

The government describes it as a decision-making centre for growth and devolution. The revived National Economic Council is designed to bring ministers and regional mayors together, and Burnham is expected to work from Manchester each week.

The office does not itself cause private companies to relocate, but it strengthens Manchester's role as a location where national government and regional business policy intersect.

Mayors are promised a share of locally generated growth

A broader devolution package followed on July 30.

The government announced that English mayors would receive a share of income-tax revenues for the first time and retain a larger proportion of locally generated revenues.

Changes are due to begin with greater business-rates retention from spring 2027.

The precise income-tax mechanism has not yet been finalised. Further details are due in a roadmap accompanying the Budget.

It would therefore be inaccurate to state that a specific share of income tax has already been transferred to Manchester or other mayoral authorities.

The package also promises greater regional control over transport, housing, skills, employment support and investment.

Civil Service decentralisation predates Burnham

The relocation of government functions was already under way before the current prime minister took office.

In May 2025, the previous government announced plans to reduce the number of London-based civil servants by 12,000 full-time-equivalent roles by 2030, from around 95,000 to 83,000.

Eleven central London government buildings were scheduled to close, with projected annual property savings of £94 million by 2032.

The government also set an ambition for 50% of UK-based Senior Civil Service roles to be located outside London by 2030.

Burnham's agenda therefore expands and politically reinforces an existing decentralisation program rather than creating it from scratch.

Manchester Digital Campus does not mean 8,800 new jobs

Another important correction concerns Manchester Digital Campus.

The project is designed to bring together approximately 8,800 people from several government departments, primarily in digital functions, when it becomes operational around 2032.

That figure describes the scale of the campus workforce, not 8,800 guaranteed new jobs.

Construction is expected to support around 4,900 direct jobs over the four-year build period.

The project has a calculated Net Present Social Value of £2.345 billion and is expected to produce around £4.7 billion of long-term estate efficiencies over 60 years compared with maintaining dispersed leased accommodation.

This is more precise than treating the full campus headcount as newly created employment.

Government projects are already changing Manchester's office geography

Ground preparation at the Ancoats site began in 2026, with main construction scheduled to start in 2028.

Around 25,000 civil servants are already based across North West England.

The campus is intended to concentrate digital expertise and help the government increase the proportion of technology and digital roles across the Civil Service.

Manchester is therefore attracting several sources of office demand simultaneously: government, technology, finance and professional services.

London remains far larger than any regional rival

Tens of thousands of relocated functions would not remove London's status as Britain's dominant business centre.

In 2024, London generated 26.5% of the approximate gross value added produced by the UK's non-financial business economy.

Its non-financial businesses generated about £460 billion of aGVA, including £348.3 billion in non-financial services.

North West England accounted for 10.5%.

Importantly, these figures cover the non-financial business economy and should not be described as London's share of total UK GDP.

London additionally retains the dense ecosystem of international banks, asset managers, insurers, law firms and multinational headquarters that supports its global financial role.

North West headline labour data currently look stronger

In March to May 2026, the employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 was 74.6% in North West England and 73.8% in London.

Unemployment was estimated at 4.8% and 6.5%, respectively.

Compared with a year earlier, the North West employment rate had increased by 1.3 percentage points, while London's had fallen by 1.2 points.

These figures require caution. Labour Force Survey estimates remain volatile following changes to data collection, and payrolled employee numbers were falling year on year across almost all UK regions in June.

Short-term regional statistics therefore do not prove a structural employment exodus from London.

Regionalisation predates the current government

Professional-services companies have been moving selected functions to cheaper UK cities for years.

Operations, technology, compliance, legal support and internal corporate roles have been particularly mobile.

That process has helped regional markets develop deeper professional talent pools, which in turn makes further relocation easier.

Client-facing executives, senior management and roles dependent on London's global financial network remain substantially harder to decentralise.

The trend is therefore better understood as partial redistribution of professional-services activity rather than Manchester replacing London.

Artificial intelligence creates another risk

There is also a technological constraint on the forecast.

Many roles historically moved from London to regional cities have been back-office, support and process-intensive positions — the same categories facing increasing automation risk from artificial intelligence.

Financial News previously highlighted the issue and cited Freshfields' reduction of paralegal roles in Manchester, which the firm linked to AI. It also noted that client-facing investment-banking and legal roles are considerably harder to move away from London.

The regional employment forecast therefore needs to be considered alongside potential automation of some of the functions most suitable for relocation.

Successful decentralisation could make Manchester more expensive

For property markets, additional professional employment creates straightforward demand.

Higher-paid finance, legal and technology workers increase demand for apartments near the city centre, transport hubs and office districts.

Employers simultaneously increase demand for high-grade commercial space.

If housing, office development and transport capacity fail to keep pace, some of Manchester's economic advantage will be capitalised into higher rents and property values.

That is the central property-market tension created by successful decentralisation: the more effective Manchester becomes at attracting London functions, the more expensive Manchester itself can become.

FAQ: London jobs and Manchester's economy

Are 90,000 employees definitely leaving London?

No. The figure is a forecast for jobs or functions that could be relocated. Some positions will be filled by people already living outside London.

Who produced the forecast?

The 90,000 estimate comes from Robert Walters rather than the UK government.

When could the relocation happen?

The model projects up to 12,000 roles by the end of 2027, around 45,000 by 2029 and as many as 90,000 by roughly 2031.

Will Manchester receive all 22,500 North West jobs?

No. The 22,500 forecast covers North West England, including Manchester, Liverpool and other locations.

Which other cities are competing for the roles?

Major potential beneficiaries include Birmingham, Leeds, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Cambridge, Newcastle, Reading and Cardiff.

Why are companies considering moving functions?

Key factors include London office costs, limited prime office supply, regional talent pools and hybrid working.

How much cheaper are Manchester offices?

Prime Manchester rents are around £48 per square foot compared with £95 in the City of London and £200 in Mayfair and St James's.

Is the government forcing private companies to relocate?

No. Companies make their own location decisions. Devolution can influence infrastructure, skills and the wider regional business environment but does not compel private firms to move.

What is No10 North?

It is the prime minister's Manchester operation, designed to bring central government, mayors and business leaders together on growth and devolution.

Will Manchester Digital Campus create 8,800 new jobs?

Not necessarily. The campus will bring together around 8,800 government staff, some of whom already work within the Civil Service. Its construction is separately expected to support around 4,900 jobs.

Could Manchester replace London?

There is currently no evidence that Manchester is close to replacing London as the UK's dominant financial and business centre.

What could the shift mean for Manchester property?

Additional professional jobs can support housing and office demand, but insufficient supply could push rents higher and gradually reduce Manchester's current cost advantage.

As International Investment experts report, the central weakness in the 90,000-job headline is the tendency to confuse relocated functions with relocated people. The forecast is neither a government target nor evidence that 90,000 London professionals are preparing to move north. Even so, the effect on Manchester property could be material because locally hired professionals create much the same housing and office demand as relocated workers. A second risk comes from artificial intelligence: support functions that are easiest to move out of London are also among those most exposed to automation. The stronger measure of successful devolution will therefore be whether regional cities create durable high-productivity companies, decision-making roles and genuinely additional jobs rather than simply hosting lower-cost operations transferred from the capital. For Manchester's property market, success also carries a cost: without substantially more office and housing supply, the price advantage that attracts employers today will gradually narrow.