Uzbekistan Property Transactions Rise 25% in First Half
Uzbekistan’s real estate market rebounded in June after activity weakened in April and May. More than 171,000 real estate purchase-and-sale transactions were registered in the first half of 2026, up 25.3% from a year earlier. June recorded more than 25,000 transactions, 23% more than in May. At the same time, the official residential property price index increased only 4% year on year in the second quarter. The two figures require careful interpretation, however: transaction statistics cover registered real estate deals broadly, while the new housing index is based on quality-adjusted asking prices rather than the final prices of completed transactions.
Real estate transactions increase by more than a quarter
Kun.uz reported on July 31 that Uzbekistan’s property market had regained momentum following a spring slowdown. The underlying figures confirm the rebound: more than 171,000 real estate purchase-and-sale transactions were registered between January and June, 25.3% more than a year earlier. The absolute increase was approximately 34,500 transactions.
The definition is important. The 171,000 figure represents real estate purchase-and-sale transactions broadly and should not be described simply as apartment or housing sales.
Activity increased across all regions. Syrdarya recorded the fastest first-half growth at 36.4%, followed by Tashkent city at 34.9% and Navoi region at 30%. Khorezm increased 16.7%, Bukhara 15.4% and Fergana 12.1%.
June reverses the spring slowdown
The market weakened following an unusually strong March but rebounded sharply in June.
More than 25,000 transactions were registered during the month, 23% more than in May. Activity was 20.4% above June 2025 and 24.9% above June 2024.
Bukhara recorded the strongest monthly increase at 50.1%, followed by Navoi at 41.5% and Samarkand at 31.8%. Andijan rose 17.9%, Tashkent region 12.2% and Khorezm just 0.9%.
The recovery was therefore geographically broad rather than confined to the capital.
Tashkent accounts for almost one-third of activity
Tashkent city remains Uzbekistan’s largest real estate market.
It accounted for 30.8% of all transactions registered in June, or approximately 7,800 purchase-and-sale agreements. Transaction volumes were 35.7% higher than a year earlier, the strongest annual increase among the regions.
Syrdarya followed with 26.9% growth, Navoi with 26.3% and Karakalpakstan with 23.3%.
Tashkent city and Tashkent region should be treated separately because their market dynamics differ considerably.
The first quarter inflated the half-year comparison
The 25.3% first-half increase does not mean activity accelerated evenly throughout all six months.
A total of 110,100 purchase-and-sale transactions were registered in the first quarter alone, 48.4% more than a year earlier. Activity was particularly elevated in March.
A substantial part of the first-half increase was therefore already accumulated by the end of March.
The April-May decline partly reflected normalization from that unusually high starting point.
The central bank links the March surge to escrow changes
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan explicitly associated the March spike with the introduction of a new escrow system for real estate purchase-and-sale processes from April 1.
According to its analysis, market participants accelerated contract formalization before the new procedure came into force.
The March result therefore contains a significant one-off administrative component.
The June rebound is arguably more informative when assessing underlying post-transition market demand because activity strengthened again after the April-May correction.
Mortgage lending and incomes support demand
Banks issued UZS 5.7 trillion in mortgage loans during the first quarter, 29% more than a year earlier. Real household incomes rose 7.8% over the same period.
Newer first-half statistics show total household income reaching UZS 618.3 trillion. Real income growth was 9.2%, while nominal income increased 16.6%.
These figures correct the previous version, which used lower and outdated first-half income growth rates.
Stronger purchasing power and mortgage availability provide a more fundamental source of housing demand than the temporary March registration surge.
Construction is expanding housing supply
Approximately 3.3 million square metres of housing were commissioned in the first quarter, 6.6% more than a year earlier. Most of the increase came from individual housing construction.
Total construction work reached UZS 104.94 trillion in January-May, representing real growth of 14.5% from the corresponding period of 2025. Buildings and structures accounted for 70.4% of total construction activity.
Strong supply growth can help explain why the surge in market turnover has not yet produced a comparable increase in housing prices.
Residential property prices rise 4%
The official residential property price index increased by 1.3% quarter on quarter in Q2 and by 4% from the same period of 2025.
Apartment prices rose 1.2% from Q1 and 5.5% year on year. Individual houses increased by 1.4% and 2%, respectively.
Primary-market apartment prices increased 0.7% quarter on quarter and 7.1% year on year. Secondary-market apartments rose by 1.6% and 4.2%.
New apartments are therefore appreciating materially faster than existing apartments, while individual houses show substantially slower annual price growth.
The new index is based on asking prices
This is the most important methodological correction to the previous article.
Starting in Q2 2026, the National Statistics Committee introduced a new residential property price methodology based on hedonic regression. It adjusts for differences in floor area, location, floor level and other property characteristics.
The underlying price data come primarily from property advertisements on OLX.uz. Where coverage is insufficient, listings from real estate agencies and realtor channels on Telegram and other available sources can be used. All prices incorporated into the calculation are asking prices.
Actual transaction counts supplied by the Ministry of Justice are used in constructing the weights, but the underlying prices are not final registered transaction prices.
The official 4% increase should therefore be described as growth in a quality-adjusted residential property price index based on offers, rather than a precise 4% increase in completed transaction prices.
The series was recalculated back to 2024
The methodology change does not create a simple break in the time series in Q2 2026.
To improve comparability, historical indices from 2024 onward were recalculated using the hedonic-regression approach, with 2024 serving as the base year.
The composite index reached 106.8 in Q2 2026 relative to the 2024 base of 100. The apartment index stood at 107.1 and the individual-house index at 106.1.
Investors can therefore compare the series from 2024 using the same recalculated framework, although longer historical comparisons require additional care.
Tashkent leads transactions but not price growth
The capital’s exceptional liquidity has not translated into the strongest price appreciation.
Tashkent apartment asking prices increased 1.3% quarter on quarter and 3.9% year on year. Primary-market apartments were 5% more expensive than a year earlier and secondary-market apartments 3.2% higher.
Outside Tashkent, apartment prices increased 7% year on year. Primary-market prices rose 8.7% and secondary-market prices 5.1%.
The distinction is important for investors: the most liquid property market is not necessarily the market delivering the highest nominal price appreciation.
Transactions and prices cannot be compared directly
The 25.3% increase in registered transactions is much larger than the 4% annual increase in the residential property price index.
But the two indicators measure different things. One represents the number of registered transactions across real estate categories over six months. The other tracks quality-adjusted residential asking prices in one quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier.
The gap therefore cannot by itself prove or disprove market overheating.
The more defensible conclusion is that the official housing-price indicator has not yet accelerated on anything approaching the scale of the increase in transaction activity.
Uzbekistan’s economy grows 8.5%
The broader macroeconomic environment has strengthened further.
Real GDP increased by 8.5% in the first half of 2026, supported by strong consumer and investment demand.
The latest full-year growth forecast has been raised to approximately 7.5–8%, replacing the earlier 7–7.5% estimate used in the previous version of this article.
Strong growth, rising incomes and investment provide a favourable environment for property demand, although they also maintain pressure on inflation.
Interest rates remain restrictive
The policy rate was kept unchanged at 14% on July 29.
Annual inflation stood at 6.4% in June, while core inflation was 5.7%. The year-end headline inflation forecast remains around 6.5%.
The monetary authority considers tight conditions necessary because domestic demand remains strong and price pressures have not disappeared.
High borrowing costs therefore act as a counterweight to rapidly expanding demand in the property market.
The market is active, but overheating is not established
Uzbekistan’s first-half property data are clearly strong. Transactions increased by more than a quarter, mortgage lending expanded, household incomes rose and construction activity remained elevated.
However, part of the half-year increase reflects the exceptional March surge before the escrow transition, while the official housing index shows much more moderate price growth.
It is therefore premature to describe the market as broadly overheated on the basis of transaction volumes alone.
As International Investment experts note, the strongest first-half signal is a major increase in market activity and liquidity rather than an equally dramatic increase in property values. Investors should also recognise that Uzbekistan’s new official housing index is based on asking prices rather than actual closing prices. Market conditions should therefore be assessed using transaction registrations, mortgage lending, supply and price indicators together. If high transaction volumes persist after the temporary March escrow effect disappears while price growth remains moderate, that would point to a more sustainable expansion. If strong transaction growth begins to coincide with rapidly accelerating prices and credit, the evidence of overheating would become considerably stronger.