Conflict in the Middle East Is Redirecting Europe Travel Demand

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is beginning to reshape international travel demand, redirecting part of long-haul traffic away from Gulf transit hubs and toward European and Asian alternatives. HVS says some long-haul travelers are moving away from routings through Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi and are instead choosing transit points such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam. Airlines are adjusting schedules and leaning more heavily on flexible booking conditions, while passengers are increasingly willing to pay for tickets that can be changed with less risk.

Jet fuel costs are adding pressure to fares

Fuel is a central part of that shift. According to the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor, the global average jet fuel price rose 11.2% week on week to $175 per barrel in the latest reported period. That supports the argument that fuel is becoming one of the main drivers of higher airfares, especially on long-haul routes where closed or risky air corridors lengthen flight paths and reduce aircraft utilization.

At the same time, the claim that the Strait of Hormuz is “largely closed” is better understood as a severe disruption rather than a universal shutdown. Reporting from AP and other March sources indicates that traffic through the strait has not stopped entirely, but volumes have fallen sharply and navigation has become more selective and hazardous. For the airline sector, even a partial disruption in one of the world’s most important energy corridors quickly feeds through to fuel costs, scheduling decisions and ticket pricing.

Europe is benefiting from redirected demand

HVS argues that demand is being redirected rather than destroyed. Intra-European travel is showing solid momentum, and established Southern European destinations such as Spain, Portugal and Italy continue to post strong bookings. Interest is also spreading to secondary cities in Northern and Southern Europe, as well as to Southeastern Europe, especially along the Adriatic. That suggests geopolitical turbulence may not only reinforce Europe’s biggest tourism markets but also support a wider group of destinations able to offer simple logistics and lower routing risk.

Signals from tour operators broadly support that reading. TUI UK & Ireland says it is seeing hesitation around trips to the Gulf and routings through hubs such as Dubai and Doha, but not a broad collapse in holiday demand. Instead, travelers are amending plans. The company reports stronger demand for direct long-haul flights to the Caribbean and eastern destinations, alongside rising interest in Europe and the Mediterranean, including Spain, Portugal, Greece and Cape Verde.

The Eastern Mediterranean faces a regional risk halo

Not all European markets are benefiting equally. HVS specifically points to slower bookings in the Eastern Mediterranean, including Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt, as well as parts of Greece. The reason is what it calls a regional risk halo, where travelers view a broader area as exposed to instability even when a specific destination remains operational and safe. Route disruption, longer journey times and higher travel costs add to that drag.

Broader UK travel-sector commentary points in a similar direction. Advantage Travel Partnership says demand has slowed for parts of the Eastern Mediterranean, while the Western Mediterranean remains a standout beneficiary. For Europe’s hotel market, that means the redistribution of demand is likely to be uneven even within the same macro-region, with the biggest gains flowing to destinations associated with reliable connectivity and minimal dependence on Middle Eastern transfer hubs.

Shorter trips may replace part of long-haul demand

In HVS’s medium-term view, the shift will affect not only geography but also the composition of demand. International arrivals, which often generate higher revenue per stay, may ease slightly, partly offset by stronger domestic and intra-regional travel. At the same time, more expensive long-haul flying may encourage Europeans to spend more on shorter trips closer to home, including premium leisure experiences. For hotel operators, that points not to an automatic fall in demand but to a change in revenue mix and guest profile.

That is why the current pattern should not be read as permanent. HVS notes that the situation remains highly dynamic, and if tensions ease, Middle Eastern destinations could reclaim displaced demand relatively quickly. But as long as fuel stays expensive, routes remain longer and travelers remain cautious, Europe has a window to capture demand in the short-haul, dependable and easy-to-substitute segments of the market.

As International Investment experts report, the current geopolitical reshuffling of travel flows is supporting European destinations with strong connectivity and dependable market positioning, but for hotel operators and investors the key variable will be agility: demand is not disappearing, it is being rapidly reallocated across routes, cities and trip formats.

Georgia is gaining from simpler and more reliable travel logistics

As demand shifts toward destinations seen as closer, more predictable and easier to organize, Georgia is emerging as a notable beneficiary. Its advantage is not only its position between Europe and Asia, but the fact that for a large share of travelers it remains a relatively straightforward trip in terms of routing, travel time and overall planning. According to the Georgian National Tourism Administration, the country recorded 6.1 million international traveler trips in the first three quarters of 2025, up 5.4% year on year, while international tourist visits rose 7.9% to 4.3 million. International travel revenue increased 5.1% over the same period to $3.64 billion.

For the European market, an important signal is that Georgia is becoming more visible as an air destination rather than only a land-entry market tied to neighboring countries. In January–September 2025, the share of visits made by air increased to 41.2% of all international visits from 37.1% a year earlier. Tbilisi remained the main aviation gateway, accounting for 63.7% of air visits, followed by Batumi with 19.1% and Kutaisi with 17.1%. Visits from the EU and the UK rose 13.3%, suggesting that European demand is becoming a more important part of the mix.

Georgia’s safety perception is stronger than the broader regional backdrop

In terms of perceived safety, Georgia currently looks more resilient to mainstream travelers than part of the Eastern Mediterranean, where a broader regional risk halo is weighing on booking behavior. Precision matters here. The UK advises against travel to Abkhazia and South Ossetia and against all but essential travel near the administrative boundary lines, but it does not advise against travel to Georgia as a whole. The U.S. State Department keeps Georgia at Level 1, Exercise Normal Precautions, while separately designating Abkhazia and South Ossetia as do-not-travel areas.

That distinction works in favor of Tbilisi, Batumi and Kutaisi as tourism and transit points. In a market where travelers are increasingly choosing not just a holiday but a logistically reliable holiday, what matters is not absolute geographic proximity to a conflict-prone region but how a destination is perceived through official advisories, flight access and route predictability. By that measure, Georgia compares favorably with more sentiment-sensitive Eastern Mediterranean markets because it combines novelty, relatively manageable flight times for parts of Europe and a more neutral risk profile in its main tourism zones.

Georgia’s appeal rises as long-haul travel becomes more expensive

Georgia’s growing appeal is not only about safety and access but also about product fit. As expensive long-haul travel becomes a less obvious choice, destinations that can offer a short- or medium-haul flight, city breaks, food, mountains, seafront leisure and a relatively flexible budget are gaining ground. Georgia fits that model well: Tbilisi is strengthening as a city-break market, Batumi as a seaside destination and Kutaisi as a lower-cost entry point. The growth in European visits suggests the country is no longer seen only as a neighboring or niche market but is gradually entering the wider pool of alternatives for European travelers.

As International Investment experts report, markets such as Georgia may turn into underappreciated beneficiaries of Europe’s current demand reshuffle: travelers are choosing not only sun and price, but also manageable logistics, a clearer risk profile and destinations that do not depend on complex transfers through geopolitically sensitive hubs.