Airbnb warns of LA28 lodging gap

Los Angeles lodging market braces for Olympic demand

Airbnb said on February 11, 2026 that a new Deloitte Finance report found short-term rentals could help cover a lodging shortfall during the LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games. The report’s framing matters: Deloitte states in the document that it was prepared at Airbnb’s request, for Airbnb’s use, and based on information available as of November 10, 2025.

According to Airbnb’s release, the LA28 Games will take place primarily across Los Angeles County and Orange County and are expected to draw about 15 million visitors. Early demand indicators have been strong. LA28 said it received more than 1.5 million registrations in the first 24 hours after opening its ticket draw, and later reported that registrations had surpassed 5 million worldwide.

Deloitte sees lodging demand outstripping supply on 13 days

The central finding is that paid accommodation demand in Los Angeles County and Orange County could exceed available supply on 13 of the 19 competition days of the Olympic Games. On peak days, Deloitte estimates that as many as 320,000 visitors could face limited lodging options, with total unmet demand reaching roughly 1.1 million room nights across the Games period.

The report defines its primary lodging market as the combined area of Los Angeles County and Orange County because most venues are concentrated there. Deloitte notes that Orange County will host high-demand events including volleyball at the Honda Center in Anaheim and surfing at Trestles Beach in San Clemente, making a two-county analysis necessary for the Games footprint.

How much capacity the region currently has

Deloitte estimates total daily accommodation capacity at roughly 396,000 people during the Games when hotels, university beds and short-term rentals are combined. Of that figure, hotels account for about 276,000 people per day, while short-term rentals account for around 102,600.

The methodology is detailed in the report. Deloitte projects 157,790 hotel rooms in the two-county area by 2028, but assumes only 92% can be effectively available on average during peak periods, leaving 145,167 usable rooms per day. Using an average occupancy of 1.9 people per room, that translates into about 276,000 hotel guests daily. For short-term rentals, Deloitte starts from 32,800 bookable or available nights per day across major platforms during the last two weeks of July 2025. Applying the same 92% effective availability rate produces roughly 30,200 nights, and with an assumed average group size of 3.4 people, that becomes capacity for about 102,600 people per day.

The economic upside projected in the Airbnb-backed report

In Deloitte’s most aggressive scenario, a doubling of short-term rental supply would provide lodging for an additional 282,000 tourists on peak days, cover 87% of the accommodation gap and generate more than $488 million in direct economic activity. That scenario also points to support for as many as 5,300 jobs and about $120 million in combined tax revenue.

The medium scenario assumes a 40% increase in short-term rental supply. Under that model, the region could accommodate 168,000 more tourists, close 46% of the lodging gap and capture more than $257 million in direct economic activity, alongside roughly 2,800 jobs and $63 million in tax revenue. In the lower-growth scenario, a 20% increase in supply would accommodate 79,000 additional tourists, close 24% of the gap and generate more than $136 million in direct economic activity, with 1,480 jobs and $33 million in tax revenue.

The report also includes a broader measure in its high case: beyond the $488 million direct effect, Deloitte estimates total economic gains of more than $782 million once indirect and induced impacts are included.

Why the issue is gaining urgency now

Airbnb and Deloitte tie the argument to current tourism conditions in Los Angeles, not only to the Olympics. Airbnb says the local tourism sector is approaching pre-pandemic visitor volume and that hotel rates have already moved above 2019 levels. Separate industry reporting on Los Angeles Tourism data showed the city welcomed 49.1 million visitors in 2023, reaching 97% of its 2019 level.

At the same time, Deloitte points to Los Angeles’ Home-Sharing Ordinance, enforced in late 2019, which restricts short-term rentals to a host’s primary residence and imposes a 120-day annual cap. The report argues that these rules limit the market’s ability to deploy flexible capacity during a temporary demand spike tied to a mega-event.

The report is scenario-based and not an official LA28 forecast

The document includes several caveats that are essential for readers. Deloitte says the report was prepared for Airbnb, should not be used for other purposes, does not assess the impact of accommodation types other than short-term rentals, and relies in part on Airbnb internal data that were then adjusted to reflect other platforms. It also notes that figures are rounded for readability.

That means the paper should be read as a scenario model built for a market participant seeking policy change, rather than as an official forecast from LA28 organizers, the City of Los Angeles or California authorities.

As International Investment experts report, Airbnb’s publication signals that short-term rentals in Southern California are no longer just a local regulatory issue ahead of the 2028 Olympics. They are increasingly being framed as part of event infrastructure, with the key question now shifting toward how far local authorities are willing to expand legal capacity without creating a lasting oversupply of hotel rooms once the Games end.

FAQ

What does Deloitte forecast for LA28 accommodation demand?

Deloitte projects that paid lodging demand in Los Angeles County and Orange County will exceed available capacity on 13 of the 19 Olympic competition days, with up to 320,000 visitors facing limited options on peak days.

How many extra visitors could short-term rentals absorb?

In Deloitte’s high-growth scenario, expanded short-term rental supply could accommodate an additional 282,000 tourists across peak days.

Who commissioned the LA28 short-term rental report?

The report was prepared by Deloitte Finance at the request of Airbnb, according to the document itself.

How much lodging capacity does the region have today?

Deloitte estimates hotels can accommodate about 276,000 people per day, while short-term rentals can host around 102,600 people per day. Total daily capacity, including university beds, is put at roughly 396,000 people.

Why is Airbnb pushing for short-term rental policy changes?

Airbnb argues that expanding short-term rental supply would help absorb the Games-related visitor surge without building new lodging infrastructure and would keep more tourism spending inside local communities.