France’s Property Market Slows Ahead of the 2027 Presidential Election

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France’s property market is slowing amid political and economic uncertainty. Notaries forecast a decline in annual home sales from 951,000 transactions in 2025 to 920,000 by the end of 2026. Buyers are postponing purchases as mortgage rates rise and the presidential election approaches.

Home Sales in France Lose Momentum

After a rebound in 2025, France’s existing-home market has begun to slow again. According to notaries, 951,000 transactions were completed in the 12 months to August 2026, up 3.6% on the preceding 12-month period. By December 2025, that growth rate had been close to 13%.

Sales could fall to 920,000 by the end of 2026, a decline of 3.3%. For comparison, approximately 1.2 million properties changed hands at the 2021 peak. The recent recovery has therefore fallen short of earlier transaction volumes.

Interim figures confirm the trend. Notaries recorded 958,000 transactions in February, followed by a decline to 949,000 in May and a return to the previous figure in June. According to Insee, residential property sales in France virtually stopped growing in the first half of the year. Transactions completed over 12 months represented 2.5% of the housing stock, compared with 3.3% in the third quarter of 2021.

Existing Homes in France Fall in Price Again

In the second quarter of 2026, existing homes in France became 0.8% cheaper than in the same period of 2025, according to Insee. House prices declined by 1.3% and apartment prices by 0.1%. Compared with the preceding quarter, the overall index fell by 1%.

Meilleurs Agents’ October barometer recorded the first nationwide monthly fall in property prices since the start of 2026, at 0.1%. Eight of the country’s 11 largest cities registered declines, while Lyon and Toulouse continued to see increases.

Price Changes in October 2026

Insee’s statistics are based on registered transactions, whereas Meilleurs Agents uses its own property valuation methodology. Differences in the underlying calculations and reference periods mean these figures are not directly comparable. So far, the changes have been moderate and do not indicate a nationwide market crash.

House Price Trends Across France

According to notaries, house prices in France rose most sharply over the year in northern Corsica, Montauban and Chartres. Brest, Châteauroux and Dijon recorded significant falls. The figures cover the second quarter of 2026 and exclude apartments.

Annual Changes in Detached House Prices

Prices also fell in Bordeaux (−3.1%), Toulouse (−2%) and Nantes (−0.3%). Lyon recorded an increase of 4.6%, while the Marseille–Aix-en-Provence area saw a 2.4% rise. The Île-de-France region, which includes Paris, registered a decline of 1.5%.

Transaction values vary considerably between locations. The median house price was €122,500 in Châteauroux, €390,000 in Lyon and €471,600 in southern Corsica. Even similar percentage changes can therefore translate into differences of tens of thousands of euros for buyers and sellers.

Mortgage Rates Are Rising

Between December 2025 and August 2026, the average mortgage rate in France rose from 3.08% to 3.32%, according to the central bank. By the end of October, lenders were offering rates of 3.87% for 20-year loans and 4.01% for 25-year terms, according to Meilleurtaux. The latter figures describe current lending offers rather than previously issued loans.

Higher borrowing costs are reducing household purchasing power. In the third quarter, the number of mortgages issued fell by 8.1% and the total amount lent declined by 9.2% compared with the same period of 2025, according to Crédit Logement/CSA. Households on tighter budgets are having to consider cheaper properties or delay purchases.

Consumer confidence in France fell in October to its lowest level since June 2013. According to Insee, the index dropped from 85 to 80 points. The assessment of personal financial prospects deteriorated by nine points, while willingness to make major purchases declined by four. These results suggest growing caution over large household expenditures.

What Is Influencing France’s Property Market?

Legislative changes are playing an increasingly important role in decisions made by buyers and investors. Authorities are considering changes to the taxation of rental income and gradually tightening buildings’ energy-efficiency requirements. These measures could increase owners’ costs, reduce investment returns and affect home values.

Tax policy remains a major source of uncertainty ahead of the French presidential election, scheduled for 18 April and 2 May 2027. It is not yet clear how the country’s economic priorities will change after the vote. Proposals to revise tax relief for property owners are already under discussion, however.

The budget bill submitted on 1 October proposes tightening the taxation of rental income by limiting depreciation deductions for furnished properties. The proposed cap is 2.5% and €7,000 a year for ordinary apartments, compared with 1.5% and €5,000 for tourist accommodation. Parliament is still considering the bill, and its final provisions may change.

A further source of costs is the energy-performance standard for residential buildings. Since 2025, properties rated G have been barred from being newly let in France. The restrictions are due to extend to class F in 2028 and class E in 2034. Owners of older homes must budget for insulation and heating upgrades, while prospective buyers have to account for the cost of renovation.

Conditions could nevertheless improve for some properties without additional investment. From 1 January 2027, the calculation method for the DPE energy performance certificate will change: the coefficient used to convert electricity consumption into primary energy will fall from 1.9 to 1.7. As a result, some electrically heated apartments will receive a better rating without any construction work. The revised assessment could remove certain rental restrictions for their owners, although actual energy consumption will remain unchanged.

France Property Market Outlook for 2027

France’s housing market is entering 2027 with no signs of a sustained recovery. Transaction numbers are declining, while prices are changing only marginally. Notaries believe property prices in France could stabilize by the end of 2026, but that would not necessarily signal a recovery in demand.

International Investment analysts believe the most likely scenario for early 2027 is continued subdued activity without a sharp nationwide collapse in prices. Sellers may have to revise their expectations more frequently, particularly when properties remain unsold for extended periods. The gap between sought-after homes and less marketable listings could widen, with regional differences becoming more pronounced.

For investors, fewer transactions create more room to negotiate. The largest concessions are likely to come from owners seeking a quick sale. Consequently, the gap between initial asking prices and actual transaction values could widen even if national averages stabilize.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did property prices in France change in 2026?

In the second quarter, existing homes were 0.8% cheaper than a year earlier. House prices fell by 1.3%, while apartments declined by 0.1%.

How many home sales are expected in France by the end of 2026?

Notaries forecast approximately 920,000 transactions, down from 951,000 in 2025 — a decline of 3.3%.

What mortgage rates are French banks offering?

At the end of October 2026, average offers were 3.87% for 20-year mortgages and 4.01% for 25-year loans.

What tax changes are proposed for rental property owners?

The draft 2027 budget would limit depreciation deductions for furnished rentals. The final rules have not yet been approved.

What restrictions apply to renting out homes in France?

Since 2025, newly letting properties with an energy rating of G has been prohibited. The restriction will extend to class F in 2028 and class E in 2034.

What is the outlook for French property prices in 2027?

Notaries see scope for prices to stabilize by the end of 2026. International Investment analysts expect weak demand to persist in early 2027 without a sharp nationwide drop in home values.